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Thepledge Big Story: Will Osun Election Be A Test Case For 2027?
By Augustine Akhilomen
With just days left for the conduct of the much expected Osun governorship election, the political atmosphere in the state remains tense, coupled with the fact that there are palpable fears that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may not be fair to all political parties despite it’s consistent assurance of conducting a transparent, credible, free and fair election.
Although 14 political parties are on the ballot, political analysts say the campaign dynamics, political intrigues and strength of the major contenders have effectively narrowed the race to the All Progressives Congress (APC), which candidate, Alhaji Bola Oyebamiji is seeking to reclaim Osun, and the Accord, which is banking on Governor Ademola Adeleke’s incumbency, popularity and record in office.
For INEC, the poll represents yet another opportunity to reinforce public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process following the reforms and technological innovations introduced in recent election cycles.
“The Osun governorship election is a very important election because of its proximity to the 2027 general election. We are determined to ensure that the process is free, fair, and credible,” INEC Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan said in a recent statement.
The election is therefore not merely a contest among political parties; it is also a referendum on the country’s electoral management system and the ability of democratic institutions to deliver credible, transparent and peaceful elections ahead of the 2027 general election.
Again, the political environment in Osun has historically been among the most competitive in Nigeria. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, elections in the state have frequently been characterised by intense rivalry, violence, legal disputes and narrow victory margins.
The state’s electorate has demonstrated an independent voting culture, often resisting assumptions based solely on party dominance in the South-West. Political allegiance has however shifted over the years, reflecting local governance issues, candidates’ personalities and grassroots mobilisation rather than ideological considerations alone. This history makes every governorship election in Osun particularly unpredictable and interesting to watch.
However, the recent happenings in the state, starting with the arrest and detention of the secretary to the Osun State Government (SSG), Teslim Igbalaye, for alleged vote buying, and the arrest of the Osun State Commissioner for Environment, Mr. Mayowa Asejoorin, in connection with gunshots fired at the APC members on Saturday In Ilesa by the police, have raised a question mark on the police’s neutrality ahead of the election.
The police are meant to protect the interest of the people and not be used as a tool to frustrate or intimidate politicians. Such action will only portray a negative picture about the police heading to next week’s election. This is coming in the wake of repeated assurance by the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Tunji Disu that the force will be unbiased and neutral before, during and after the elections.
Then, just last week Thursday, in a move that came as a surprise to most Nigerians and that was out rightly condemned, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) froze the Osun State Government account with days to the election. The development came hours after Governor Ademola Adeleke alleged that the EFCC was planning to freeze the state’s accounts and those of top government officials.
Despite the fact that president Bola Tinubu has intervened on the matter by directing EFCC to immediately return to court and vacate the order freezing the accounts of the Osun State Government, the move was seen as an attempt by the federal government to intimidate and frustrate the state government by all means and to make it difficult for Governor Adeleke to retain his governorship position.
Most observers were of the view that there was no ground whatsoever to justify the action of the EFCC with election just around the corner. They faulted the anti-graft agency for being used by the presidency to circumvent the democratic process in the countdown to the Osun governorship election. “The timing was particularly damaging”, says Senator Babafemi Ojudu. “An anti-corruption investigation may be legitimate, but when enforcement action is taken only days before an election, its timing becomes inseparable from its political consequences”, Ojudu said in a statement.
Ojudu asked how a federal agency could take such a step with grave political, economic and democratic consequences without anticipating the damage it could do to the credibility of both the federal government and the electoral process.
But then, questions on the lips of political observers remain: will INEC and other critical agencies be truly independent to discharge their duty without any form of interference from the federal level?
Reacting to the development, Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation magazine and a close friend of Governor Adeleke said the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has lost the confidence of many Nigerians.
Momodu cited the forthcoming governorship election in Osun state as an example, saying that despite being an election in just one of Nigeria’s 36 states, it already resembles a war.
“I think INEC has a lot of work to do and a lot of grounds to cover for the majority of Nigerians to believe they are serious as an umpire,” he said.
“The impression currently is that INEC is impotent, and you cannot blame Nigerians for that. There is a Yoruba proverb that a woman whose child has been killed before by a witch sees every woman as a witch.
“So, INEC has always dashed the hopes of Nigerians. So, don’t be surprised if Nigerians see INEC as a witch that will continue to kill and suck the blood of its victims. Despite all the resources poured into INEC, it usually fails so glaringly and spectacularly.
“We saw in 1993 how the June 12 election ran very smoothly. But today we don’t have anything close to that. Nigeria should be improving, not deteriorating, not degenerating. And the umpire cannot be different from those who appointed them. “If those who appointed people believe in free and fair elections, they will do everything possible to manipulate, to manoeuvre, to meander and make sure that they have their way by hook or by crook.”
In his own opinion, The President of the Nigerian Society of International Affairs (NSIA), Prof. Hassan Saliu, told Thepledge that the Osun governorship election is shaping up to be one of the most politically sensitive contests in recent times, with several underlying factors likely to shape both the campaigns and the eventual outcome.
“There will certainly be pressure on INEC because of the political importance attached to the election. The Commission must rise above every form of influence, remain faithful to the law, and ensure that every contestant is treated fairly. Only a credible process can produce an outcome that enjoys public confidence,” he said.
Also speaking, a lecturer of Politics and Governance at Kwara State University, Malete, Dr. Seyid Hassan Cisse, told Thepledge that INEC’s constitutional independence places a greater responsibility on the Commission to safeguard the credibility of the election.
He said the political atmosphere in Osun remains tense because of the competing interests surrounding the poll, insisting that the electoral umpire must resist every form of pressure and allow the democratic process to take its course.
“The independence attached to INEC requires it to remain neutral. My appeal is that the Commission should allow the will of the people to prevail. Let democracy triumph, let every eligible voter exercise his or her franchise freely, and let every valid vote count,” he said.
“If the will of the people does not prevail, we will be writing a chapter of history whose consequences may be borne by future generations. Electoral integrity is not only about today but also about preserving confidence in our democracy,” he stated.
It is believed that the success of the election will depend not only on the commission’s technical competence but also on the collective commitment of political actors, security agencies, civil society organisations, the media and the electorate to uphold the principles of free, fair and peaceful elections.
For sure, all eyes will be on Osun as voters go out this Saturday to elect the governor who will preside over the affairs of the state in the next four years. Will it be Governor Adeleke of the Accord Party or Bola Oyebamiji of the APC? What is however not in doubt is that the Osun election is seen as a test case for next year’s general election. Nigerians are watching to see how INEC, the police, the political leaders, the electorate and other stakeholders play their roles in making sure the outcome justifies the efforts put into it.
More importantly, Osun voters want to see an outcome that is a reflection of what they wanted. They want to see a transparent and credible process translating to free and fair results.
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Tinubu shopping for fresh loan in Vienna while factories are suffocating under diesel above N2000 per litre -Atiku
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has described the proposed Vienna-listed bond arrangement as another disturbing sign of a government that keeps expanding its appetite for borrowing while refusing to give Nigerians a clear account of what has happened to record revenues, subsidy savings and the windfall from higher crude oil prices.
Mr Atiku said it was indefensible that, at a time when Nigerian factories were spending as much as half of their operating costs simply to keep the lights on, the Federal Government was again looking overseas for more financing without first explaining why vastly improved revenues failed to reduce its dependence on debt.
In a statement by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, Mr Atiku said the contrast could hardly be more striking: manufacturers are battling diesel prices above ₦2,000 per litre, crippling power costs and expensive credit, while government borrowing continues to rise at home and new financing arrangements are being pursued abroad.
He said, “This is the central contradiction Nigerians are entitled to question. Government says revenues are up. It says subsidy removal has saved enormous sums. Oil prices are substantially above the benchmark used for the 2026 budget. Yet borrowing is accelerating, factories are suffocating under energy costs and ordinary Nigerians are still struggling to afford the basics.
“Before the Tinubu administration goes to Vienna in search of more money, it must first tell Nigerians what has happened to the money already coming in.”
The crisis confronting Nigerian manufacturers provides perhaps the clearest picture of what is wrong with the economy. Diesel has risen to about ₦2,000 per litre and above in some industrial locations, while the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria says energy-related expenses now consume more than half of manufacturers’ operating costs. Manufacturers spent about ₦1.34 trillion on alternative energy in 2025, yet expenditure in the first half of 2026 alone had already approached the same level.
Mr Atiku said, “Consider what that means for a factory in Lagos, Kano, Aba or Nnewi. Before the manufacturer pays workers, buys raw materials, transports finished products, services bank loans or makes a profit, a huge part of the operating budget has already disappeared into simply keeping the machines running.
“No economy can industrialise under those conditions. A manufacturer spending half of his operating costs on energy will eventually have to raise prices, cut production, lay off workers or close the factory. Whichever option he takes, ordinary Nigerians pay through higher prices, fewer jobs and reduced household income.
“Yet, at precisely this moment, the Federal Government is looking towards Vienna for another financing arrangement.
“We are told that ESME Limited, a special-purpose vehicle involving Nigerian public institutions and Austrian interests, is preparing to issue bonds on the Vienna market to finance investments in Nigeria. But Nigerians have not been given a sufficiently clear picture of the financial structure, the size of the proposed transaction, the cost of borrowing, the repayment terms or the extent of the Nigerian government’s exposure.
“That is where the problem of transparency becomes impossible to ignore. Nigerians are constantly told that revenues have increased, FAAC allocations have risen, enormous savings have been made from subsidy removal and oil earnings have improved. At the same time, government borrowing continues to grow at an extraordinary rate.
“In the first eight months of 2026 alone, Federal Government borrowing from the domestic market reportedly reached ₦24.7 trillion, compared with ₦12.98 trillion during the corresponding period of 2025. That is an enormous increase in government demand for capital at a time when Nigerian businesses are themselves desperately searching for affordable credit.
“The contradiction becomes even more difficult to explain when crude oil prices are considered. The 2026 budget was prepared on an oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, yet crude prices have moved substantially above that level. If oil earnings are exceeding projections, revenues are rising and the government has indeed saved the huge sums it claims from subsidy removal, why is the appetite for borrowing increasing rather than falling?
“The situation can be understood very simply. Imagine a family whose income has increased substantially, whose biggest monthly expense has supposedly been removed and which has also received an unexpected financial windfall. Yet the father continues borrowing from the cooperative, borrowing from the bank and now travels to Vienna to borrow again. Meanwhile, there is no electricity in the house, food is becoming more expensive and the children are struggling. At some point, every member of that family will ask the same question: where is all the money going?
“That is the question Nigerians are asking today.
“If government revenues have increased, if crude oil prices are above budget projections, if subsidy savings are as large as the administration claims and if allocations to the different tiers of government have risen, then Nigerians deserve a transparent reconciliation showing what has been earned, what has been spent, what has been borrowed and why additional debt continues to be necessary.
“The Vienna transaction therefore cannot be treated as an obscure technical arrangement known only to officials, bankers and financial advisers. Nigerians must know how much is to be raised, in what currency, at what interest rate, for what tenure and through what repayment mechanism. They must also know whether the Federal Government is providing any sovereign guarantee, undertaking any contingent liability or otherwise exposing public finances to obligations that may ultimately fall on taxpayers.
The Tinubu administration has distinguished itself by an alarming recklessness in the management of Nigeria’s public finances, compounded by a disturbing absence of transparency in the reporting of revenues, debt obligations and refinancing arrangements.
Despite repeated demands from credible fiscal watchdogs, civil society and the political opposition for a clear and comprehensive account of the government’s expanding layers of borrowing, refinancing and contingent liabilities, the administration has largely responded with silence and opacity.
“That silence is unacceptable. A government that continually asks Nigerians to tighten their belts, endure higher prices and make painful sacrifices cannot, at the same time, refuse to open its own books. Sacrifice without transparency is not leadership; it is an abuse of public trust. Nigerians cannot be asked to carry the burden of economic hardship while being denied a clear account of how their money is being managed and what debts are being accumulated in their name.
“This demand for openness is particularly important because the consequences of excessive borrowing are already being transmitted to the real economy. When government absorbs enormous amounts of capital from the domestic financial market, manufacturers, farmers and small businesses are forced to compete with the state for increasingly expensive funds.
“The same businesses are simultaneously being forced to generate their own electricity, absorb rising logistics costs and sell to consumers whose purchasing power has been badly weakened. That combination is economically destructive.
“A government cannot continue boasting about rising revenues while factories spend half their operating costs on power. It cannot celebrate subsidy savings while households struggle to afford food and transportation. And it cannot benefit from an oil-price windfall while simultaneously increasing domestic borrowing and searching overseas for additional financing without explaining the arithmetic.
“This is why transparency is no longer optional. Nigerians should not require forensic accountants to collect fragments from different ministries, agencies and financial statements before understanding the condition of their own country’s finances. There should be a clear public trail from revenue to expenditure, from borrowing to projects, from guarantees to liabilities and from higher oil earnings to the public accounts.
“The Federal Government must therefore publish the full architecture of the Vienna transaction and provide Nigerians with a comprehensive reconciliation of its increased revenues, claimed subsidy savings, additional oil receipts and rapidly expanding debt obligations.
“Bola Tinubu must open the books. Nigerians deserve to know what has been earned, what has been borrowed, what has been spent, what has been guaranteed and what obligations are being created in their name.
“The question is no longer complicated: if more money is coming in and even more money is being borrowed, where is the money, and where is the paper trail?”
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ADC condemns attack on members in Kaduna, warns against political thuggery
The African Democratic Congress has condemned the attack on its members in Kaduna State, warning that political thuggery could undermine the 2027 electoral process.
In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, on Thursday, the ADC said the incident was an unacceptable escalation as political activities ahead of the elections were just beginning.
Tension erupted in Kaduna on Wednesday as suspected thugs attacked supporters of the ADC during a solidarity walk in support of the party’s governorship candidate, Isa Ashiru, in the state capital.
Reacting, the party called on security agencies to identify, arrest and prosecute those behind the attack, while urging the Kaduna State Government to ensure the safety of opposition parties.
The ADC stated, “The African Democratic Congress has condemned the attack on its members in Kaduna State, warning that no individual, group or political party has a monopoly on non-state sanctioned violence, and that those introducing thuggery into the 2027 political process are playing a dangerous game.
“Let nobody mistake our commitment to peaceful democratic participation for weakness. No political party has a monopoly on non-state sanctioned violence. Once violence becomes an accepted instrument of political competition, nobody can predict where it ends.
“This is why the security agencies must act now. Those responsible for the attack, as well as anyone who sponsored or organised it, must be identified, arrested and prosecuted.”
The ADC also expressed solidarity with its governorship candidate, Isa Ashiru, and other members affected by the incident, urging the Kaduna State Government to ensure adequate protection for opposition parties.
It continued, “Kaduna belongs to its people, not to any party. If anyone believes intimidation will frighten the ADC off the political field, they have badly miscalculated.
“We will not be intimidated. We will organise, we will campaign, and we will compete in every part of Kaduna State. The 2027 elections must be decided by ideas competing at the ballot box, not by thugs and bruises.”
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FG sets October 1 take-off for students’ free educational data
The Federal Government has announced that Nigerian students will begin receiving 100 megabytes of free daily data from October 1, 2026, to access approved educational websites and digital learning platforms.
The initiative, being implemented by the Nigerian Communications Commission in partnership with telecommunications operators and the Federal Ministry of Education, will initially cover learners in public senior secondary schools and tertiary institutions.
The Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa, announced the commencement date on Thursday at the launch of the Initiative for Zero-Rated Access to Educational Platforms and Content in Nigeria in Abuja.
“Let me let out the secret. This will be made available to Nigerian students from October 1st, 2026,” Alausa said, acknowledging the contribution of the Association of Licensed Telecommunications Operators of Nigeria to the programme.
Under the framework, participating mobile network operators will provide a daily zero-rated data allowance of 100MB, which beneficiaries can use on approved educational websites and platforms.
Speaking further, Alausa said the initiative would begin with senior secondary school and tertiary institution students before being extended to other categories of learners.
“Our ambition must be that, ultimately, no Nigerian learner should be denied access to quality educational content simply because he or she cannot afford data,” the minister said.
He noted that the cost of internet data had become a major barrier to digital education, particularly for children from low-income households.
According to him, providing access to educational platforms without data charges could transform mobile phones, tablets and computers into classrooms and libraries for students who might otherwise struggle to access digital resources.
The minister also disclosed that the government was working on measures to regulate internet access for children below the age of 16, with further details expected to be announced.
He said educational content made available to children must be “appropriate, credible, safe and aligned with our educational objectives and our curriculum.”
Alausa added, “It will be regulating internet access to children below 16 years old,” saying further announcements would follow on the proposed measure.
The minister said the government was also expanding the digitalisation of the education sector through the Nigeria Education Data Infrastructure, Digital Nigeria Education Management Information System and the Learner Identification Number.
He disclosed that more than 240,000 schools had been geo-mapped and geolocated across the country, while the government was digitising the Annual School Census to obtain information on enrolment, teachers, classrooms, laboratories, libraries, connectivity and school safety.
The NCC Director of Policy, Competition and Economic Analysis, Ayuba Shuaibu, said the Federal Ministry of Education and the commission would jointly approve the educational platforms to be whitelisted under the initiative.
He said eligible platforms would include learning management systems, digital libraries, educational repositories, teacher development platforms, as well as technical and vocational training platforms.
“The framework also adopts the operator’s consult model for the initial rollout of the initiative. Under this model, a daily zero-rated data allowance of 100 MB will be provided by the participating MNOs for usage on approved websites and platforms,” Shuaibu said.
He explained that the scheme would provide zero-rated access to public secondary schools and public tertiary institutions, giving students access to selected learning resources at no cost.
According to him, the framework also requires compliance with telecommunications laws and regulations covering cybersecurity, consumer protection, child protection and data protection. It also contains safeguards on net neutrality, fair competition and inclusivity.
Earlier, the NCC Executive Commissioner for Stakeholder Management, Rimini Makama, said millions of students were unable to access digital learning platforms because of affordability challenges.
She said the initiative was designed to ensure that no learner was excluded from educational content because of location or household income.
“The Zero-Rated Access Initiative exists to erase that line. Its principle is simple: no learner should be shut out of educational content because of where they live or what their family earns,” Makama said.
She explained that the NCC, participating mobile network operators under ALTON, the Federal Ministries of Communications and Education, and other partners carried out research, benchmarking, testing and consultations before developing the framework.
The Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr Bosun Tijani, represented by the Director, National Frequency Management Council Secretariat, Adetunji Adeyemo, described the initiative as a significant step towards making digital education more affordable and accessible, particularly to learners in underserved communities.
He pledged the ministry’s continued support for programmes promoting digital inclusion, affordable connectivity and access to knowledge.
In his closing remarks, the NCC Executive Commissioner for Technical Services, Abraham Oshadami, identified MTN Nigeria, Airtel Nigeria and Globacom among the major mobile network operators supporting the programme.
He thanked the operators for their “commitment to support its implementation by providing free data allowances for learners to access approved platforms.”
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