By Augustine Akhilomen

With just two years and two months left to the commencement of the 2027 presidential election, it does appear that the opposition party’s quest for a merger party meant to wrestle power from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Tinubu seems far from realization, due to some party leaders inability to reach an agreement on the way forward.

Most recently, the former presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 election, Peter Obi, had dismissed merger talks with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) or any other political party in the country.

He had said: “There are no merger talks with any party at this moment. We must focus on unity and collective action to bring about the change Nigerians desire.”

“There are a lot of lies and propaganda. There is a lot of trying to bamboozle the people, which has to stop. Let us build this country. None of us would be here forever. Those who did it yesterday are no longer here. But if you look at the country, it is collapsing every day.”

The above is coming at a time when opposition parties have expressed frustration with the state of affairs under the watch of President Tinubu.

However, January 2025 is about the time that APC was formed in 2013, and there are mutterings that a similar coalition in the offing could result in a strong party to confront Tinubu in 2027, despite Peter Obi’s dismissing such a move.

Then, in 2013, political parties, including the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the PDP, among others, merged to oust Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP from the seat of power.

While Tinubu is constitutionally eligible to stand for re-election for his final term in 2027, opposition elements are said to be negotiating a fresh political platform to unseat him. Indeed, Series of meetings are being held across the country to form an alliance and by extension, a coalition before the next general elections.

But the question agitating the minds of political observers is if they, among others, could midwife a formidable platform to face the APC, not to talk of the capacity to wrest power from Tinubu in 2027. There are those of the belief that leaders of the opposition parties are too ambitious to sacrifice for the collective good of all.

Speaking on a possible merger among opposition political parties in 2027 against the ruling APC, former Senior Special Assistant to ex-Vice President Yemi Osinbajo on Media and Publicity, Laolu Akande said mergers would not birth solutions to the country’s problems.

“All of these political mergers are not going to solve the problems of Nigeria. In 2014, there was a merger that led to the APC. There were a lot of expectations in this country. APC carried the national wave. Nine years later, where are we?

“We are nowhere different from where we were then because the core issues have been left unaddressed. So all of these mergers, even if they (proponents) succeed, what is going to happen is that they will just change the characters of people in the Government House.

“We need to understand that there are fundamental problems that have to be sorted out, and we cannot leave it to politicians,” he added.

Similarly, Peter Obi and Atiku contested on a joint presidential ticket in 2019 on the PDP platform but lost to former president Muhammadu Buhari of the APC. Ahead of the 2023 election, Obi defected to the Labour Party and contested for the presidency, garnering 6.1 million votes with minimal resources and no help from the political establishment.

Atiku bagged 6.8 million votes, while Kwankwaso got just over a million votes. Tinubu, who was the eventual winner, polled 8.4 million votes.

Some public affairs commentators and even Tinubu’s campaign agreed that had the opposition been united against the APC, Tinubu would not have won the 2023 election, particularly because the economy was mismanaged by the Buhari administration.

With the divisions and internal wrangling in PDP and the Labour Party due to prolonged legal battles, which is unlikely to be resolved before election season, adopting a new party for a fresh start seems a viable option for Atiku and Obi, who have become outsiders in their respective parties.

However, the challenge will also be how to bring on board the 12 PDP governors, some of whom are nursing presidential ambitions or are loyal to Nysome Wike.

“Can Atiku bring in governors and lawmakers into this planned new political party? You cannot win without having such lieutenants,” says Jide Ojo, a political scientist based in Abuja.

Reacting to the development, the immediate past National Vice Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Salihu Lukman, called on former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former governors Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Rotimi Amaechi to team up to defeat the APC in 2027.

“Building strong political parties in the country capable of responding to the challenges facing citizens and reversing the phenomenon of ‘state capture’ at all levels is about political leaders agreeing to form a united front across all parties. Forming a united front is about recognizing the shortcomings of individual leaders and being able to forgive misgivings of the past.

“The ability to forgive misgivings of the past is a fundamental requirement for political leaders to be able to orient themselves and provide the needed leadership for national reconciliation. The inability of the APC, both under former President Buhari and now under President Asiwaju Tinubu, to orient itself on the path of national reconciliation represents one of the biggest political failures ever experienced in the country.”

Also, a chieftain of the PDP in Benue South, Mathias Adache, pointed out that the highly anticipated change of government could only be achieved through a formidable alliance between the three major opposition parties.

According to him, “There is no way the PDP or Labour Party can defeat Tinubu in 2027 if they don’t come together. They tried this thing individually in 2023, but it didn’t work for us, so what magic do they want to do in 2027?

“There is power in unity; until we unite against our common enemies, we may never get out of this mess. Greediness is the problem with some of our politicians. Instead of having the interest of the nation at heart, they are being sponsored by their selfish interests.

“Someone like His Excellency Atiku Abubakar should not be talking about contesting for the presidency in this country again if he has the interest of the nation at heart. I expected him to organize the opposition parties and be their leader.

“The truth is that APC knows that the moment these opposition figures can reach an agreement, their tenure will be over.

“They know this because it was the same strategy that brought them into power in 2015. Without the alliance of other parties, only ACN, as it was then, could not have removed former president Jonathan.

“Their greatest nightmare is if PDP, LP, and NNPP come together. But they will spend billions to make sure it never happens.”

Meanwhile, political observers think that if a true merger project must come to fruition, then the three political gladiators must shelve their ambition of contesting for the presidential election. This appears to be the major challenge that the trio of Atiku, Kwankwaso, and Peter Obi are facing at the moment and they must try and find a way around it if they are to dethrone Tinubu from power in 2027.

The trio must be ready to support a fresh candidate that can appeal to or win the heart of Nigerians, who are hoping for a change in the country. They must be willing to construct a winning strategy by coming up with a message that will endear them to the majority of Nigerians.

More so, they must make an effort to curtail the infiltration of the new merger party by outsiders to achieve the aim of the party.

Even so, a clear and direct determination on the part of the leaders to sacrifice the immediate for the bigger picture must be exhibited as well.

Interestingly, the acting National Chairman of the PDP Umar Damagum, said last week that the PDP remains the strongest opposition party in the country, adding that any merger without the PDP would not unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.

His words: “People are entitled to their opinions, but I want to remind him (Kwankwaso) of the past. When they left the PDP in 2015, if the party didn’t die back then, during a time they thought they had weakened it, I don’t see why anyone would claim it is dead now.

“Let’s not forget that the PDP remains the only party capable of winning elections if you exclude the ruling APC.

“That said, there is no party better than the PDP for Kwankwaso. The party nurtured his political career and brought him to where he is today. We still hope he will return to work with us to rebuild our party and confront this oppressive government.”

This merger poses a significant challenge to Tinubu’s ambitions, particularly with his stronghold in the Southwest. While Tinubu has long been a political force to reckon with, the united front of Atiku, Obi and other opposition leaders will threaten and disrupt the calculations of the ruling party and the political dynamics in the country. Only time will tell if the opposition leaders would be pragmatic enough to sacrifice their ambition for the betterment of the country and democracy.