By Augustine Akhilomen

With 22 states already in the kitty, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), has shown its dominance of the political space and from all indications, looking ahead to add more states to its list if the recent declaration of its National Chairman and former Kano State Governor, Alhaji Umar Ganduje is anything to go by.

Ganduje made this declaration after the party’s victory at the just concluded governorship in Ondo State. “Our next target in the South West Geopolitical zone is Osun and Oyo states. You know we are good at hitting the target. We will do what is possible to bring them into the fold so that we can have more political opportunities in the South West Geopolitical zone.”

And during a stakeholders’ meeting in Ondo before the election, Ganduje had said the ruling party was working very hard to take over the entire South West region ahead of the 2027 general election. He stressed that both Oyo and Osun states must also be under the capture of the progressive party to boost President Bola Tinubu’s support, especially in the south.

“In this geopolitical zone, we must deliver 100 percent in favour of APC. Therefore, Ondo State, you must be at the forefront of the two other states – Oyo and Osun – we will capture them, but I will not reveal our secret. We are strategising. Everything must be 100 per cent behind President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” he had said.

However and as expected, Ganduje’s comment was met with wild condemnations from the opposition party, who accused the APC national chairman of attempting to destabilize the South-West region and foment unrest.

Reacting to this development, the Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, criticized the APC National Chairman for his remarks on the party’s plan to take control of Osun and Oyo states.

“As a well-read politician, one would have expected Dr. Ganduje to know that electoral contests depend mostly on local indexes and factors,” the statement read. “What obtains in Edo and Ondo is surely different from the political realities in Osun State.”

“If Dr. Ganduje truly loves Mr. President, why is he pushing to destabilize the president’s home zone through open threats to violate electoral law and deny the electorate their rights to vote and be voted for? By threatening to hijack opposition states, the APC leader is undermining the consensus among Yoruba people who accept Mr. President as their own irrespective of political differences.

“If, however, the statement of the APC leader is borne out of ignorance, he is invited to study Osun politics to get better informed of the dynamics of this state’s politics and to appreciate that what works in Edo and Ondo cannot play out here for several reasons.

“In Osun state, the ruling party, the PDP, is daily receiving thousands of decampees from opposition parties. The PDP in Osun is already a strong mass movement that cannot be overrun by a party chairman who failed to deliver his state and who does not have the mandate of Mr. President to ignite conflict in the South West zone.

“The PDP in Osun state is too deeply planted to be threatened or suppressed by any electoral robber, and Governor Adeleke remains an extraordinarily popular leader whose mandate now or in 2026 cannot be hijacked by anti-democratic forces’, the spokesperson noted.

In the same vein, Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, a few days after, declared support for his Osun State counterpart, Ademola Adeleke, in the political battle ahead of him, saying the APC will not win in Oyo and Osun states.

“The people of Osun State must come first, and they have been put first. Two years ago, they made a political choice. They moved from one political party to the PDP. Then someone, I believe, got a bit distracted after the Edo and Ondo elections and said they were coming for Osun and Oyo. People, are you not waiting for them? You will show them.”

“Well, I want to assure them that the game is not over in Edo and Ondo. We are challenging the result in court. We are a law-abiding party, and we believe that the corpse they hurriedly buried will be exhumed,” Makinde said.

Meanwhile, the Chairman of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in Osun State, Dr. Tosin Odeyemi, has cautioned the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Ganduje, against inciting political tension in the Southwest with his recent comments.

“One would have expected Ganduje to demonstrate better communication skills befitting his position. With the economic challenges Nigerians are facing, who would be willingly to vote for the APC? Ganduje should not be carried away by what transpired in Ondo State.”

“Osun people are wise and peace-loving. Each party must allow voters to decide freely. Ganduje must not turn the Southwest into a war zone. Spoken words carry weight, and 2026 must be crisis-free in Osun,” he added.

In the same vein, the Southwest chapter of the People’s Democratic Party has slammed the APC leader over his remarks concerning the forthcoming electoral processes in Osun and Oyo states.

In a statement issued in Ado Ekiti, the PDP Zonal Publicity Secretary, Sanya Atofarati, said, “The PDP urges President Bola Tinubu to rein in the unwarranted threats made by APC National Chairman Ganduje to manipulate the electoral process in Ekiti, Osun, and Oyo states, using the APC’s trademark of rigging.”

“We affirm, without equivocation, that Ganduje lacks the moral authority to speak on matters of credibility or democracy,” Atofarati added.

In the meantime, some political observers have questioned the ruling party’s capability to win Osun and Oyo, going by the PDP’s strong grassroots structure and the people’s will to stand by the party.

One factor that may determine where the pendulum will swing, according to them, will be how well Gov. Adeleke has performed in his first term in power. Has he been able to fulfill some of the promises made to the people of Osun State when he was first elected as governor in 2022?

Besides, the candidate that will be fielded by APC will only go a long way to determine the chances of Adeleke retaining his seat of power. A notable option for the APC in the state is former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, who lost to Adeleke in the previous election that was held in the state.

Oyetola’s APC government between 2018 and 2022 ultimately laid a foundation for Adeleke’s victory by suffering from self-inflicted injuries.


Also, political observers in the state feel that the feud with his predecessor, to whom he was Chief of Staff, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, was borne out of inexperience for a governor that won a state-wide election with less than 500 votes when there was no bickering within the party. “Oyetola was not seen in the state as a politician because of his reserved and withdrawn nature”, says Sola Faturoti, a political analyst.

“It will be difficult for Oyetola to come back given his antecedents when he was both Chief of Staff and governor. He did not show enough determination to take the state to the next level. And many people see him as too cold and unimpressive. And with little achievements to show for his four years tenure, I really don’t see him coming soon”, Faturoti said.

While about seven names of potential contestants are in the public space, interaction with party members and words in the street revealed that the top governorship contestants for APC at the moment in Osun can easily be forecasted.

One name that readily comes to the minds of many stakeholders is Alhaji Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, a banker turned politician. He is presently the Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), and was Osun State Commissioner for Finance for eight years.

Senator Surajudeen Ajibola Bashiru, who hails from Osogbo in the Osun Central zone, is also a likely aspirant. He is currently the National Secretary of the APC.

For sure, the ruling party will have an uphill task of dethroning Adeleke from the seat of power in Osun. Regardless of the candidates that will be presented to test their might against Adeleke, the Osun voters will be left to decide the fate of who becomes the next governor. And given the nature of politics in the state of the Living Spring, the electorate is conscious enough to ensure that their votes count.

Since they are not likely to be watching while their mandate is stolen, the Gandujes of this world will find it difficult to do any magic to turn the tide against the people. And the ball is in the court of Governor Adeleke to ensure that his campaign promises are consummated. This is what will ensure his second term in office and not what people described as his penchant for dancing.