By Augustine Akhilomen
With just three months to the all-important 2023 Presidential election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate and former Lagos State governor, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be banking on the massive support from the Northern region in a bid to have a breakthrough in his ambition.
The north, which has always served as the key region that often determines where the pendulum will swing to as far as bloc votes are concerned, will again come to the fore in the 2023 election. There has, however, been doubt in the minds of more than casual observers of Nigerian politics, that the North might not be totally in support of Tinubu’s ambition.
Democracy, as the saying goes, is a game of numbers. The North has the numbers and going by the numbers recently released by the Independent National Electoral Commission, (INEC), it has the preponderance of voters and has always wielded considerable influence on who becomes president in Nigeria with its massive swathe of the politically-sophisticated population. The North is politically adroit and always makes solid and decisive political statements that resound with a loud, united thud in the entire Nigerian landscape, its leaders would boast.
Although the North had always made profound political choices, it had shared equally in the strings of leadership failures that had visited Nigeria since independence. Its leaders share in this leadership malfunction too, so the North has shared both in the glory and afflictions of the Nigerian state since independence.
But Tinubu, according to his core supporters, is arguably one of the best accepted and loved Southern politicians in the entire North today. A cosmopolitan, urbane, charismatic politician, Asiwaju has built massive bridges across the country, particularly in the North. He has cultivated love, acceptance and a widespread constituency in the North, such that he is more acceptable in the North than many top Northern politicians.
Many of the APC leaders also said the strong man of Lagos politics has borne his pains with such equanimity that he offers excellent support to the Buhari government to date. “It is only natural that the North reciprocates with their votes to Asiwaju in the coming presidential election. He has paid his dues quite satisfactorily”, one of them told Thepledge.
Tinubu is running on a joint ticket with Kashim Shettima, the governor of Borno state (2011-2019) and former chairman of Northern Nigeria Governors Forum. Shettima is an astute administrator and is seen as skilled at bringing together fellow governors. But the decision to go with Shettima means the APC is running a Muslim-Muslim ticket, a move which goes against the convention of having a “religiously balanced” ticket in Nigeria.
However, many wonder if the former Lagos Governor can really bank on the Northern region to help him deliver the winning magic considering the other Northern candidates, such as Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will also be battling for their votes.
A very close political ally of President Muhammadu Buhari in Kano, Abdulmajid Danbilki Kwamanda has declared that Northern Nigeria has made its choice and will only vote for the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
“If you compare Tinubu to other candidates, including those claiming to be pan-Nigeria, you will realise that they have nothing to show that they have done for their people or constituents.
“Northerners will never vote based on myopic sentiments of tribe or religion, but based on the quality of the candidate and what he can do for them.
“The North will never allow the PDP to come back to power with the calibre of candidates they are presenting to Nigerians who are only after their personal whims and caprices”, he said.
In the same vein, Jigawa State Governor, Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, one of the early backers of the APC National Leader, said the Northern part of the country will pay back Tinubu in the coming 2023 general election.
“Tinubu is the only friend to the north, he supported five different northern presidential candidates including Shehu Shagari, Umar Musa Yar’adua, Atiku Abubakar, Nuhu Ribado and President Muhammadu Buhari”
“So it is payback time and we are ready, we are honest people, we respect keeping to our promise and we are ready to compensate you for what you have done for the North”
Good enough, some of the governors under the umbrella of APC have thrown their weight behind Tinubu, despite the Party’s chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, insistence on the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan as the party’s flagbearer during the primaries.
Recall that Ahmed Lawan was announced as consensus presidential aspirant by the National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, a day before the convention at the Eagle Square, Abuja. Adamu was strongly resisted by the APC governors in the North, most of whom insisted that power must shift to the South.
It indeed, further created some sort of chaos in the party as those loyal to Tinubu voiced their anger on Adamu’s stance, claiming that the South deserved to be President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor. It was the persistent efforts of the Northern governors that made the emergence of Tinubu as the APC flagbearer a reality.
Even so, it was not a secret that Tinubu was in the past seven years relegated by President Buhari and a tiny cabal led by the President’s influential nephew, Mamman Daura. For years, the Lagos godfather had been the butt of jokes from the opposition as many of his key allies were sidelined in Buhari’s government.
In 2018, Tinubu’s wife, Remi, accused the President of dumping her husband, saying, “We were running three campaigns in my house and for him to be trashed like that?” However, Tinubu remained resolute as his eyes were fixed on the grand prize- the Presidency of Nigeria.
As he recanted during his last week visit to the Leader of Afenifere, the Pan Yoruba Socio-cultural group, Tinubu said he was nearly giving up his ambition because of the opposition he met on the way to realize his ambition. He said his belief in the unity of the country was rekindled with the level of support he got from the northern part of the country.
It’s important to note however that no Northern bloc has shown any displeasure or indisposition to Tinubu’s Presidency, an indication that the North may well have embraced him as their President come 2023.
As the ruling party with 21 state governors, the APC has the advantage of incumbency, but it remains to be seen if the northern political establishment will throw its support behind a man who is seen as a game changer; a man who is widely seen as a power broker, who understands the use of power and money.
The next few weeks will be decisive as the various political parties round up their campaigns. The odds largely favour Tinubu, given the division within the ranks of opposition PDP, but in politics, the dynamics may change at any moment. For now, Jagaban, as he is widely called, holds the ace as voters weigh their options before the February elections.
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