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Osun will test whether the police can remain the referee

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By Lanre Olagunju

Nigeria has a peculiar relationship with election security. We ask the police to keep politicians from fighting, then spend the election complaining about which side the police are fighting for.

That contradiction will be tested again on Saturday in Osun.

The question is not whether the Nigeria Police Force can deploy enough men and women to the state. It is whether, after the votes are counted, both sides can honestly say the police behaved like a referee rather than a participant.

That is a much harder test.

IGP Olatunji Disu appears to understand that the real work began long before election day. On 3 July, he went to Osun against the backdrop of escalating political violence, meeting Governor Ademola Adeleke and subsequently engaging political parties, traditional rulers, leadership from the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) – whose influence extends to a constituency often at the centre of political mobilisation – and other stakeholders. He warned that the state was preparing for an election, not a war.

There is something important about that approach. Election policing should not begin when voters start queuing. By then, intelligence should already have identified flashpoints, political actors should have been warned, and the police should know who is likely to test the limits.

Disu’s engagement with young people is particularly significant in a state where political violence often recruits the young as foot soldiers. Listening to those who live closest to the problem is not weakness. It is intelligence gathering of a different kind.

But the IGP’s visit also produced an uncomfortable moment.

Disu told the governor that he had been briefed about wanted criminal suspects allegedly being shielded by influential people and spoke of criminals allegedly hiding in the Government House.

Some found the statement awkward. Perhaps it was. But there is a bigger question worth asking: what does speaking truth to power look like if the police chief cannot say what his intelligence is telling him, simply because the alleged hideout happens to be politically inconvenient?

The answer, however, must also include evidence, due process and accountability. Intelligence is not conviction.

Perhaps more revealing was what happened to the state’s election command structure.

With some political actors questioning the neutrality of the existing Commissioner of Police, the Force introduced an Electoral Commissioner of Police ahead of the poll. That decision can be interpreted in two ways. Critics may see it as an admission that confidence had already collapsed. Another interpretation is that the police leadership recognised that perception of neutrality is itself a security issue and acted long before election day.

That distinction matters.

The Force has also moved senior officers into the operation, including DIG, AIG and DCP-level coordination. The value of such deployment should not be measured by the number of stars on shoulders but by whether decisions can be made quickly, consistently and without political interference.


There is another test.

When Senator Francis Fadahunsi, an APC member, made remarks interpreted as a threat to “kill” Accord Party members, the Police invited him for questioning within 24 hours. He later said he meant “killing votes”, not people.

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The bigger point is this: political affiliation did not shield him from scrutiny. That is how police neutrality should work: the same standard for everyone, regardless of party, position or personality.

That is where credibility is earned.


For neutrality to mean anything, it must be consistent. The same standard must apply to the opposition, the ruling party, the powerful and the politically connected. Where the facts demand scrutiny, no political affiliation should confer immunity.

Osun will therefore be a test not just of security, but of institutional character.


Were voters protected regardless of who they supported? Were parties treated equally? Were violent actors pursued regardless of political affiliation? Did police officers themselves remain restrained and professional? And when the result is announced, can the losing side say, even grudgingly, that the police seem to have carried out their job fairly?

Those questions will matter more than any promise of neutrality.

Disu has spent the weeks before the election putting structures, personnel and principles in place. The harder task now is to ensure that those principles survive the pressure of election day.

The Police do not need to determine who wins Osun. Its responsibility is simpler, and perhaps more difficult: to create the conditions in which whoever wins can credibly be said to have won the voters, not the Police.

That is what neutrality looks like when it matters.

Lanre Olagunju wrote in from Abuja.

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COLUMN

Profile of Atiku’s lobbying and contact man in the USA. Who is pushing the bogus FBI criminal files:

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INVESTIGATIVE PROFILE: Karl-Marx Edward Ikemefuna William George Okeke-Von Batten
Alias: Dr. Karl Von Batten, Karl Von Batten, Edward Ikemefuna

Nationality: Nigerian-born, US-based

Profession: Lobbyist, Self-described Policy Advisor

Firm: Von Batten-Montague-York, L.C. (VBMY)

SUMMARY
Karl Von Batten is a controversial figure in Washington, D.C., known for securing multi-million dollar lobbying contracts from African governments and political figures while facing persistent allegations of fraud regarding his academic credentials, professional identity, and ability to deliver promised political influence. He is often described by critics and investigative journalists as a “scam lobbyist” who sells illusions of access to the US government.

1. DUBIOUS ACADEMIC CREDENTIALS

Alleged Fabrication:
Von Batten claims to hold a PhD and degrees from elite institutions such as Columbia University, Harvard, and others. However, multiple investigations assert he “never set foot” in these institutions and that his PhD is “phony.”

The “Bio” Scam:
His professional biography, used to secure contracts, lists a “top-flight” academic history that investigators claim is entirely invented. This fabricated background was allegedly used to convince foreign governments (e.g., DRC, Somalia) of his expertise and influence.

Unverified Affiliations:
While he maintains profiles on academic networks like ResearchGate listing publications and a Columbia University affiliation, no official records confirm his enrollment, graduation, or employment at these institutions. These profiles appear to be self-maintained rather than institutionally verified.
2. QUESTIONABLE LOBBYING PRACTICES

“Pay-to-Play” Influence:
Von Batten has secured massive contracts, including a reported $1.2 million deal with former Nigerian VP Atiku Abubakar and millions from the DRC government. Critics allege these payments were for “influence” that never materialized.

Unauthorized Policy Announcements:
He has been caught making false claims about US foreign policy. For example, he publicly announced US military cooperation with the DRC before any official government statement, leading to accusations that he was selling “illusions” to gullible clients.

FARA Violations & Shadow Entities:
He has registered as a foreign agent for clients like the Federal Government of Somalia and the DRC. However, reports suggest he sometimes operates through “pseudo-charitable organizations” (e.g., United Somalia Alliance) that are legally prohibited from engaging in political lobbying, potentially violating US tax and lobbying laws.

3. HIGH-PROFILE SCANDALS

The DRC Implosion (2025):
The DRC government paid Von Batten millions to manage their image in Washington. When US Senator Ronny Jackson exposed DRC corruption, Von Batten’s lobbying efforts collapsed. The DRC realized they had been defrauded, paying for a “fraudulent operation” run by a man with a fake identity.

Somalia/Somaliland Controversy:
His work for Somalia to block recognition of Somaliland was criticized for having “limited clients” that did not match his “outsized bravado.”

Atiku Abubakar Contract (2026):
A reported $1.2 million contract with Nigerian politician Atiku Abubakar was signed by a third party (Fabiyi A. Oladimeji) without Atiku’s direct signature.
4. PATTERN OF DECEPTION

Identity Shifting:
He uses multiple names (Karl Von Batten, Edward Ikemefuna, Karl-Marx Edward) to obscure his background and create a false sense of legitimacy.

Exaggerated Titles:
He frequently uses the title “Dr.” and claims to be a “senior government advisor” without verifiable evidence of such roles.

-Silence on Allegations:
Despite widespread media coverage of his alleged fraud, Von Batten has not publicly addressed the specific accusations regarding his academic credentials or the collapse of his lobbying contracts.

5. LEGAL AND PROFESSIONAL STATUS

Lobbying Registrations:
He is listed in Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA) and Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) filings, which provide a paper trail of his activities but do not verify his claims.

Corporate History:
He has been associated with inactive or shuttered entities such as “Health Informatics Corporation” and “America Educates,” further complicating his professional history.

Current Standing:
While he continues to operate in Washington, his reputation is severely damaged, and he is widely regarded by journalists and political analysts as a figure of fraud rather than legitimate influence.

CONCLUSION
Karl Von Batten represents a case study in the exploitation of foreign governments by unscrupulous lobbyists. His career is built on a foundation of alleged academic fraud, exaggerated claims of influence, and a pattern of securing large payments for services that appear to be non-existent or ineffective. His story serves as a warning about the need for due diligence when engaging US-based lobbying firms, particularly those with unverifiable credentials and a history of controversy.

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Atiku’s Subsidy Push and Echoes of Desperation

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By Tunde Rahman

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s new policy shift toward bringing back the fuel subsidy is a welcome return to proper political debate and the path of rectitude. It contrasts sharply with his futile search for forged certificates and drug indictments in the run-up to the 2023 election and his latest goof about President Tinubu’s age.

Alhaji Atiku stated last week that if elected in 2027, he would “bring back fuel subsidy” by subsidising fuel production. He even repudiated his media aide who tried to embellish the proposal, not meaning to call it what it truly is – reinstating the ill-conceived fuel subsidy scheme. That alone is a telling indicator of what his inner circle thinks of his populist gambit.

Atiku’s economic idea may sound compassionate, which is what the ADC candidate really wants to achieve, hoping such will win him enough votes to be the country’s president in 2027 in his seventh attempt.
But a closer look shows the proposal is a return to the same failed economics that kept Nigeria down for 40 years. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took the difficult decision in May 2023 to end the fuel subsidy regime. It was not popular. But it was necessary, indeed expedient. And three years on, the results prove why turning back the wheels should not even be contemplated.

The old subsidy bled the treasury dry. From January to May 2023 alone, when the subsidy ended, the Buhari administration spent over N3 trillion. According to official figures, between 2006 and 2023, Nigeria spent over ₦15 trillion on fuel subsidy. The government financed the bill through debts and “ways and means”. That is money that should have built schools, roads and bridges, and financed education. Instead, it subsidised smuggling to neighbouring countries and made a few marketers billionaires overnight.

“Production subsidy”, as ex-VP Atiku coined it, is still a subsidy. If government must pay the difference between cost and pump price, then we are back to borrowing to fund fuel consumption. We cannot build a $1 trillion economy on that model.
Since the removal of subsidy, we have seen real change. Deregulation is finally working. Local refining has been substantially enhanced. The Dangote Refinery is now fully on stream. Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna are now under pressure to produce and compete. That would never happen if the government were still paying people to import. Foreign exchange pressure is easing. We no longer spend $10 billion yearly to import fuel we cannot account for.

Importantly, the government is redirecting resources. The savings are funding student loans, Creditcorp, CNG buses, wage awards, defence spending, and national and sub-national infrastructure. That is subsidy to the people, not subsidy to the middlemen.

Reversing this now is telling investors: “Nigeria’s policy can change with every election.” No serious investor will build a refinery or depot under such uncertainty.
The alternative is targeted relief, not blanket subsidy.
President Tinubu understands Nigerians are feeling the pain of higher pump prices. But he also understands that the answer is not a return to 2012.

The Tinubu administration chose a better path: CNG conversion to cut transport costs, conditional cash transfers, and support for local production like the Naira-for-crude policy adopted for Dangote Refinery and other local producers.
These are targeted, scrupulous interventions. They help the poor directly without creating a black hole in the budget. These initiatives need to be intensified and further expanded. Indeed, those ends were the primary focus of President Tinubu’s meeting with the governors last Thursday in Abuja.

Subsidising production will still distort the market. It is still a pathway to fraud. And it will still mean less money for education, security, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Subsidy removal is already delivering. The country’s GDP growth rate at 3.89% is the biggest economic expansion in recent times. Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased for the second month to 15.43% in July 2026. The Nigerian currency is stabilising against major currencies, the stock market is expanding, and the country’s foreign reserves have grown exponentially and presently stand at over $53 billion. This helps build confidence in investors.

If these favourable macroeconomic indicators have not fully impacted the living standards of our people, it is only a matter of time, in my view, given the ongoing positive trajectory.
Leadership sometimes entails tough choices. President Tinubu’s removal of subsidy was not a whimsical decision. He did it because it was the right thing to do.
Real reform requires courage. The easy thing is to return to a failed regime and buy temporary applause as Atiku seeks to do. That would be sheer populism.

Nigeria tried subsidy for four decades, and we ended up importing fuel while exporting crude. We tried it, and it led to a debt pile-up. We tried it, and our refineries collapsed. 2027 should not be about going back to fuel subsidy as Atiku is canvassing. It should be about staying the course until local refining, competition, and CNG fully drive prices down.

We respect Alhaji Atiku’s right to propose alternatives. But Nigerians must ask: do we want relief today that creates crisis tomorrow, or do we endure a little longer to build a Nigeria that works without fraud and waste?
President Tinubu chose reform over rhetoric. He chose a promising future over a decadent past. Returning to subsidy is not progress. It is a U-turn Nigeria cannot afford.

*Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media & Special Duties.

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Tortoise and the $1bn rain that came after the harvest

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By Festus Adedayo


If you hopped onto a horse galloping in a race inside the Nigerian First Lady’s tummy, its hoof would not hit a single stumble. That was how unmistakable the air of triumph was in Abuja last week. The catalyst for this sudden, infectious jubilation was the grand launch of the $1 billion Household Prosperity and Empowerment Social Protection Project (HOPE-SP) inside the State House Banquet Hall. At the centre of the spectacle stood Pastor Remi Tinubu, whose mini-khimar – the traditional scarf covering the head, shoulders and bosom of Muslim women – flapped excitedly as she paced the rostrum. The poor velvet scarf seemed itself in a celebratory mood, synchronizing perfectly with the carefully orchestrated joy hovering over the rocks of the Federal Capital Territory.

It is three years and three months after President Bola Tinubu famously declared an abrupt end to the petrol subsidy. On one of his off-cuff junkets to France, he attributed his yanking it off to a spirit that suddenly pounced on him. With the $1 billion HOPE-SP, the administration was loudly signaling to Nigerians that real, tangible hope had finally arrived.

“What’s better than money?” Crime thriller king, James Hadley Chase, asked decades ago. Madam was the pond-skater, Ìròmi, dancing on the face of the river. $1 billion was the Kongo, the drumstick, with which the drummer hit the raw face of the hide; this time, not underneath the river. You could see the drummer itself inside the Banquet Hall. You would conclude the Khimar had just won a contest. As the Pastor paced the rostrum, her Khimar, wary of being left out of the joy, disentangles from the embrace of her neck periodically. And flaps on her laps. Madam rescues the insolent folk, straps it again on her neck, like a mother forcefully hoists a needlessly crying irritant child on her back. The scarf mirrors the infectious joy hovering over the rocks of the FCT.

To the administration’s loyalists, this $1 billion gamble was the ultimate trump card, a definitive response to Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and the relentless commune of ungrateful critics who have spent months hammering the President’s economic policies. Waziri Adamawa had not just become a pest to the bazaar in Abuja. He had become a piercing arrow that penetrates right inside the esophagus of the First Family. You could see the recent flurry of frenzies of presidential hirelings trying to outpace one another in the job of deflecting Atiku’s tantrums.

Lately, Atiku has adopted the posture of an unsparing Wolé-Wolé (sanitary inspector), peering into every corner of the presidential family’s cooking pot. He brings to mind Irish Assistant Commissioner of Police John Lynn, the CID official nicknamed Ọkùnrin Oníjògbòn yẹn (That Troublesome Man) by Mama H.I.D. Awolowo. During the dark political crisis of the Western Region in 1962, when Chief Obafemi Awolowo was locked in battle with the federal powers-that-be and their region accomplices, Lynn’s team relentlessly raided Awo’s official residence at No. 7 Bell Avenue, Ikoyi, and his home in Ikenne. Exasperated during one such intrusive raids, Mama H.I.D. famously marched into her kitchen, hauled out a cooking pot, and asked Lynn if he would like to inspect that as well! Today, Atiku, like Lynn, has become a piercing arrow penetrating the esophagi of Aso Rock, leaving presidential hirelings scrambling to outpace one another in deflecting his political arrows.

Predictably, on the $1b bailout purportedly for Nigeria’s suffering masses, both Atiku and Obi raced to the blacksmith’s forge for a weapon with which to attack what they view as an expensive medicine-after-death. They see the administration’s sudden benevolence through the lens of a classic Yoruba proverb: “Tèmi ò ṣòro, tí kì í jẹ kí ọmọ alágbẹdẹ ní idà” – it is the ambivalence of the blacksmith’s son, who insists that urgent tasks are simple and can wait, that leaves him without a sword when crisis strikes.

Yet inside the State House, the conviviality continued unabated. An old man sitting by the Banquet Hall doorstep eventually caught the First Lady’s attention, drawing on her Ososami, Ibadan upbringing of kindheartedness to the elderly. He implored her to take a fable to the President, which he said he amply entitled ‘The Tortoise, the Weaverbird, and the Midnight Harvest’. It goes thus:
In an ancient animal kingdom, Alábahun, Tortoise the Trickster, was king. He held suzerainty over forest activities, as well as on all crawling and flying animals. On all of them, he held supreme authority. Surrounded by all animals in the kingdom, Tortoise radiated the majesty of his regal stool.

Then, suddenly, like a child seized by an unannounced convulsion, King Tortoise announced to the generality of animals in the kingdom that he had just discovered an answer to the food crisis of the kingdom. Henceforth, he proclaimed in a sudden decree, the communal granary, forest animals’ commonwealth, would thenceforth be locked. All animals, he proclaimed, were banned from foraging in this fertile valley source of daily meal. Keeping the granary locked, said King Tortoise, would bring greater prosperity and wealth to the kingdom sooner than the animals imagined. The animals were aghast. To them, it was a case of the proverbial Weaverbird (Eye-ègà) using its beak to pull out what it had moulded, which the Yoruba translate to Ègà f’enu kó’lé, ègà f’enu è tu”. Where in the name of prosperity, does a leader kill his people in instalment?

As if the animals were seers, a terrible famine gripped the forest. It met bitter outcry. Weaverbirds (Ègà) and other forest creatures grew frail and emaciated, gathering at the palace gates to weep for their dying young. But, Alábahun remained locked inside his high stone walls. Palace canaries (Ìbákà), like Old Major in Orwell’s Animal Farm, sang loudly of a golden future time of riches more than mind can picture urging the populace to keep toiling for freedom’s sake. “…For that day we all must labor. Though we die before it break…” Once in a while, Alábahun himself walked to the palace balcony to see the starving animals. In sweet-smelling voice, he pleaded understanding, and need for sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. “Endure the dry season for a glorious harvest” was the palace mantra.

Apparently suffocated by the cries of the dying animals whose hungry voices grew too loud to ignore, Alábahun finally directed the royal guards to prize off the lock of the granary and unlock the forest’s treasury. He ordered a massive, unprecedented caravan of grain to be distributed to the starving animals.

The grand wagons finally rolled into the public square. As they did, the palace expected songs of praise for this royal benevolence. Alábahun stood upon his balcony, anticipating the forest to erupt in dance. King Tortoise stood upon his balcony expecting wild applause, but met only a heavy, mournful silence. The silence below was heavy.
“You watched us perish for seasons, and now you bring out baskets of corn. Is it for our funeral or that of our children? Is it now when hundreds of our children have already closed their eyes in life-long sleeps?” cried the older animals.

A fierce debate divided the forest. To many, it was mourning time. Palace’s grand grain distribution came at the animal kingdom’s most vulnerable time. It was a frantic afterthought that could not undo the months of harrowing pains and slow starvation. The heavy rain of abundance had finally fallen, but only after the soil had completely hardened into stone. As the old adage warns: “Òjò t’ó rò l’éyìn ìkórè kò lè gba iṣu t’ó ti joro” – the rain that falls after the harvest is over cannot save the rotten yam.
Animals who deigned to collect the grains were put off by palace couriers’ antics. They pilfered so many sacks of grains and the few left had been eaten up by weevils. They dissolved into dust even before they got to the nests of the poorest birds and holes of kwashiokor-ed animals. The wind blew the husks into the dry air, creating a golden dust storm that blurred the line between the palace and the valley. The heavy rain of abundance had finally fallen, but it came only after the soil had completely hardened into stone.

“That is the end of my story” the old man said.

And I suddenly woke up. A river-like beads of sweats cascaded off the pores of my flesh.

It was a dream!

Same last week when the $1 billion social package was launched, the administration announced that state governors will soon roll out lower transport fares nationwide. They will use Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and electric vehicles. It will be backed by a planned network of 1,000 refueling stations and over 120,000 converted vehicles. Administration supporters frame these roll-outs as a long-awaited answer to public suffering. Like the crowd that cheered Christ’s entry into Jerusalem – where He warned the scolding Pharisees that the stones would cry out if the people stayed quiet – the First Lady’s flapping Khimar served as Aso Rock’s celebratory “stone,” cheering relief where critics saw only ruin.

To the opposition, however, this sudden rush of belated interventions by a president who fiddled for three years and three months while the people died reflects the tragic pattern of an economic wastrel. This parable of the wastrel reminds me of a musician after my heart. He was High Chief Adedara Ar’ú’nra L’ójà Oba,legendary Ijesa musician. Those days while walking the streets of Oke-Oye in Ilesa, I saw ‘Dedara, as he called himself, playing draught with country-folks somewhere close to Saint Margaret Girls’ School. He was Ijesa’s sonic signature, their musical identity and cultural signature. Adedara presented Ijesa people’s unique musical repertoire and history to the outside world.

Adedara then famously sang of the dog-in-the-manger, the wastrel who refuses to farm, prevents others from farming, and seizes both their hoe and cutlass: “Kò ṣe, kò ṣe, kò j’ólúrè se; ó gb’okọ Olúrè, ó dè gb’àḍá rè o.” The wastrel was the man who declines to embark on a productive venture and would not allow anyone to so do; he seizes the hoe of the willing and his cutlass as well.
The fundamental flaw of the Aso Rock social protection model lies in its heavy reliance on transactional optics over structural economic survival. In three years, three months, Tinubu more than quadrupled tax payments; mercilessly devalued the Naira; replaced astronomical school fees with loans; pedaled food prices to rooftop height and flushed proceeds to federal hangers-on and state governors.

Nigerians have died in their thousands; many lost their manhood as the economy castrated them from performing their household head roles; businesses collapsed; many committed suicide. High drug prices have sent many to their graves. Yet, Tinubu’s Ìbàkà bird aides reel out robust World Bank economic figures to invalidate our oozing flood of tears. If economy under this government has had positive effects on the people, why celebrate this $1b with this fanfare? Why is it now that government suddenly realizes that hopeless Nigerians need hope and buffer? What lifeline will government give the dead and their mourning families?

Distributing grains like Alábahun did – or Naira, as Tinubu proposes to the so-called poorest of the poor, turns governance into an act of emergency relief distribution, rather than sustainable empowerment. This is after policy fires had already scorched the economic landscape. When a government inflicts macro-economic shock therapy on its citizens, without immediate, synchronized safety nets as the Tinubu government has done since May 29, 2023, any eventual palliative, no matter how grandly packaged inside state banquet halls, feels less like a lifeline, with greater optics of an afterthought. You cannot systematically subject a populace to severe economic attrition for three years and three months, yet expect a sudden shower of palliatives to convert widespread mourning into dancing as Alábahun did.

Ultimately, the $1 billion HOPE-SP initiative risks becoming another monument to misplaced timing. Some even allege it is coming this late because it is a recipe for vote buying and not targeted at the Nigerian poor per se. Again, if we still have the underlying cost of living this painfully high, temporary cash drops and subsidized transport schemes will be gulped whole by inflation, leaving the structural roots of poverty still buried deep. The administration must realize that true “Renewed Hope” is not measured by the flutter of celebratory scarves in Abuja, but by whether the ordinary Nigerian can afford to eat, work, and survive without waiting for King Tortoise’s belated granary to open.

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