World news
IMF Cuts Global Economic Growth Over Trump’s Tariff War
An upswing in economic risks due to rising trade tensions and debt levels has prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cut its forecast for world growth for this year and next.
With trade growth set to slow sharply amid a trade war between the United States and China, the IMF cut its outlook for global GDP by two-tenths to 3.7 percent for 2018 and 2019, according to the quarterly World Economic Outlook Report issued Monday.
The revised estimates include a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the United States (US) and China in 2019.
The IMF warns that risks highlighted in previous reports “have become more pronounced or have partially materialised” in the real world.
The dominant US economy has been shielded from the ill effects so far due to the stimulus provided through tax cuts and spending policies, but that will wear off by 2020.
Still, the trade disputes sparked by President Donald Trump that have led to tit-for-tat exchanges of tariffs among major trading partners are affecting China, other Asian economies and more vulnerable countries like Argentina and Turkey, along with Brazil.
“Trade policy reflects politics and politics remains unsettled in several countries, posing further risks,” IMF Chief Economist, Maurice Obstfeld, told a press briefing in Bali, where the fund kicks off its annual meetings this week.
“Despite the possibility of less political space in some countries… making consensus on sound policies often harder to reach, there won’t be a better time than now for further action.”
Growth estimates for the euro area and Britain also was revised down.
The report warned that growth “may have peaked in some major economies.”
“Downside risks to global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside surprises has receded,” the IMF said.
Rising trade tensions are a key challenge to the world economy as “protectionist rhetoric increasingly turned into action.”
That includes President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, as well as on aluminum, steel and other products worldwide.
The IMF warned the uncertainty caused by the trade disputes “could lead firms to postpone or forgo capital spending and hence slow down growth in investment and demand.”
And if it continues, the “escalation of trade tensions to an intensity that carries systemic risk is a distinct possibility without policy cooperation.”
Global trade is projected to expand by 4.2 percent this year, six tenths less than expected in July and nearly a full point lower than the forecast in April. For next year, trade is seen growing just four percent, a half point less than the prior forecast.
When the world’s two biggest economies — the US and China — are “at odds”, that is going to create “a situation where everyone is going to suffer”, Obstfeld said.
“Growth is now much more uneven” than six months ago, he told reporters.
But the outgoing Chief Economist — who retires from the Fund later this year — added that it was a “mixed picture” with some Latin American and African nations getting growth forecast upgrades.
Credit: NAN
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Headline
Obama Condemns ‘Cruel’ Trump Post, Says America’s Decorum Is Eroding
Former US president Barack Obama criticised a lack of shame and decorum in the country’s political discourse, responding Saturday for the first time to a post on Donald Trump’s social media account that depicted him and first lady Michelle as monkeys.
In a wide-ranging podcast interview with left-wing political commentator Brian Tyler Cohen released Saturday, Obama also compared the actions of agents enforcing the president’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota to dictatorships.
The video, shared on Trump’s Truth Social account on February 5, sparked censure across the US political spectrum, with the White House initially rejecting “fake outrage” only to then blame the post on an error by a staff member and take it down.
Near the end of a one-minute-long video promoting conspiracies about Trump’s 2020 election loss to Joe Biden, the Obamas — the first Black president and first lady in US history — were shown with their faces on the bodies of monkeys for about one second.
“The discourse has devolved into a level of cruelty that we haven’t seen before…Just days ago, Donald Trump put a picture of you, your face on an ape’s body,” Cohen said in the interview.
“And so again, we’ve seen the devolution of the discourse. How do we come back from a place that we have fallen into?”
Without naming Trump, Obama responded by saying the majority of Americans “find this behaviour deeply troubling.”
“There’s this sort of clown show that’s happening in social media and on television, and what is true is that there doesn’t seem to be any shame about this among people who used to feel like you had to have some decorum and a sense of propriety and respect for the office, right? That’s been lost.”
Obama predicted such messaging would hurt Trump’s Republicans in the midterm elections, saying, “ultimately, the answer is going to come from the American people.”
Trump has told reporters he stood by the thrust of the video’s claims about election fraud, but that he had not seen the offensive clip at the end.
Turning to Trump’s policies, Obama criticised his immigration crackdown in Minnesota and blasted the conduct of agents during the controversial weeks-long operation that was brought to an end this week.
Obama called the behaviour of federal officers, which included two fatal shootings that sparked mounting pressure on Trump’s mass crackdown, as the sort that “in the past we’ve seen in authoritarian countries and we’ve seen in dictatorships.”
Thousands of federal agents — including those with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) — carried out weeks of sweeping raids and arrests in what the Trump administration claims were targeted missions against criminals.
“The rogue behaviour of agents of the federal government is deeply concerning and dangerous,” Obama said.
But he added he had found hope in communities pushing back against the operations.
“Not just randomly, but in a systematic, organised way, citizens saying, ‘this is not the America we believe in,’ and we’re going to fight back, and we’re going to push back with the truth and with cameras and with peaceful protests,” he said.
“That kind of heroic, sustained behaviour in subzero weather by ordinary people is what should give us hope.
“As long as we have folks doing that, I feel like we’re going to get through this.”
The aggressive immigration operation in Minnesota had triggered large protests and nationwide outrage.
The Department of Homeland Security was subject to a partial government shutdown Saturday as US lawmakers fought over funding the agency overseeing much of Trump’s immigration crackdown.
Democrats are opposing any new DHS funding until major changes are implemented in how ICE conducts its operations.
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Entertainment
I make films for thinkers, not everyone, Kunle Afolayan responds to critics
Filmmaker Kunle Afolayan has reacted to mixed reviews trailing the second season of his Netflix series, Aníkúlápó: Rise of the Spectre, urging critics and viewers to exercise patience before passing judgment.
In a video shared on his verified Instagram page on Tuesday, Afolayan explained that his works are tailored to a specific audience.
“There’s something that’s is very peculiar about the kind of films that we make. We make films for the intellectual, not gbasgbos. We make films for people who can think,” he said.
The filmmaker added that he does not expect universal approval or understanding of his films.
He said, “I don’t expect that everybody will like the film. And I don’t even expect that everybody will understand the film, but I expect that the people I’m trying to appeal to, the people that I had at the back of my mind when I was conceiving the ideas that I know they will get it, and they got it.”
Afolayan further disclosed that he had received positive feedback from academics and scholars, saying, “I’ve heard from scholars, from professors, from deep thinkers, from people who don’t only think about now.”
Addressing critics who said they did not understand the series, Afolayan said, “It is a series that has many episodes. What you have seen are just few of the episodes. How do you conclude in your brain that it is not good when you have not even seen the entire thing?
“When you watch a series like ‘Game of Thrones’, you have to wait every week before a new episode comes out. So you haven’t even seen everything and then you concluded that the stories are all over the place. We have created new plots.”
While thanking fans who have watched the series and acknowledging their feedbacks, Afolayan recalled similar criticism to his earlier works, noting that they eventually gained recognition.
He said, “I remember when I did ‘Irapada’, when the film came out, some people came out, critiqued it and they called it all sorts. At the end of the day, the film travelled, it got awards, it was internationally recognised.
“And then we moved to ‘The Figurine,’ and I remember when we did ‘The Figurine,’ you know, some people were like, no, you know, all sorts. And we’re here now.”.
Encouraging fellow filmmakers, he said, “As a filmmaker, don’t listen, just keep making your films.
“Those who think they understand what film and how film critiquing works, well done, E Mu ra si. (Keep it up). For us, we’ll keep appealing to those who have sense, common sense.”
Afolayan concluded by reaffirming his commitment to making intellectually driven films and continuing to tell stories for audiences who appreciate deeper narratives.
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World news
Iran Rejects US Demands, Insists Uranium Enrichment Will Continue
Iran will never surrender the right to enrich uranium, even if war “is imposed on us”, its foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Sunday, defying pressure from Washington.
“Iran has paid a very heavy price for its peaceful nuclear programme and for uranium enrichment,” Abbas Araghchi told a forum in Tehran.
“Why do we insist so much on enrichment and refuse to give it up even if a war is imposed on us? Because no one has the right to dictate our behaviour,” he said, two days after he met US envoy Steve Witkoff in Oman.
Araghchi also said he hoped talks with the United States would resume soon, while reiterating Tehran’s red lines and warning against any American attack.
According to excerpts published on his official Telegram channel during an interview with the Al Jazeera network, Araghchi said that Iran’s missile programme was “never negotiable” in Friday’s talks in Oman.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to raise the ballistic missiles programme in a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington next week.
Araghchi, meanwhile, warned that Tehran would target US bases in the region if the US attacked Iranian territory.
It came as lead Iran negotiators, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, visited the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, signalling the persistent threat of US military action.
The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said the two top officials visited the nuclear-powered vessel in a post on social media.
In his own social media post, Witkoff said the aircraft carrier and its strike group were “keeping us safe and upholding President Trump’s message of peace through strength”.
Araghchi on Saturday said that despite the talks in Muscat being indirect, “an opportunity arose to shake hands with the American delegation”.
He called the talks “a good start”, but insisted “there is a long way to go to build trust”. He said the talks would resume “soon”.
Trump on Friday called the talks “very good”, and pledged another round of negotiations next week.
Despite this, he signed an executive order effective from Saturday that called for the “imposition of tariffs” on countries still doing business with Iran.
The United States also announced new sanctions against numerous shipping entities and vessels, aimed at curbing Iran’s oil exports.
More than a quarter of Iran’s trade is with China, with $18 billion in imports and $14.5 billion in exports in 2024, according to World Trade Organization data.
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