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Gabon: Yet Another Sad Day For Democracy in Africa

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By Habib Aruna

Even as the crisis in neighboring Niger Republic remains intractable, with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), still hovering between the use of diplomacy and military to settle the crisis, another major crisis reared its head in Central Africa, with the announcement early this morning by the military that they have taken over the reign of government to restore ‘peace’.

The Gabonese people were actually looking forward to hearing the results of last weekend’s presidential elections, an election that was widely condemned by observers as not credible nor transparent but which the incumbent President, Ali Bongo was expected to win by a ‘landslide’. This new development is a huge setback for French influence in Africa and for democracy, a system that has been at the receiving end of a people who are determined to end dictatorship and mis-governance foisted on them by selfish and greedy rulers. And with the reactions of the people so far on the streets across the country, it’s very clear that the coup has been widely accepted by the people no thanks to the unpopularity of the Bongo dynasty, a family that has ruled the oil rich country for more than five decades.

The deposed president’s father, Omar came to power in 1967, with his son, Ali, succeeding him in 2009, after his father’s death. So, it’s easily discernible that the Gabonese people are tired of the Bongo’s family and their cronies holding on to power for so long. They were therefore ready for the change that the coup brought. Needless to add that the deposed president had a stroke a few years back, a sickness that made him spend several months in a French hospital. Most people had expected him to resign and leave the stage for another person, but trust African rulers, that is far from their DNA. Bongo had since been recuperating and visibly struggling to perform the duty of the leader of a country that is poor because the country’s oil wealth has been mismanaged by the Bongo family.

So, even though military putsch should not be an option in the transfer of power, the inability of African rulers to follow the constitution they swore to protect and promote makes military intervention attractive. Once they get to power, elected presidents become tyrants and see their citizens as subjects; they no longer believe in the efficacy of constitutionalism and rule of law; they find it easy to circumvent due process that was brought in and want to change the rules of the game to prolong their stay in power. Of course, they find easy support from Britain and France, the so called advanced democracies and colonial powers, who in most cases, looked the other way while democracy and rule of law are being desecrated in the continent.

Examples abound in Africa, From Senegal to Cote D’ivoire; from Guinea to Burkina Faso and from Central African Republic to Democratic Republic of Congo. These leaders, sorry, rulers trample on the rights of the people and would do anything to retain their hold on power. So, the only way a military coup would cease to be an option is for African leaders to allow the people to make their choice at the ballot box, in other words, there must be free, transparent and credible elections that reflect the wishes and aspirations of the people. Those in power should not circumvent the rules guiding democracy which is embedded in the constitution. Alhassan Quatarra in Coted’voire succeeded, albeit wrongfully, in changing the constitution to enable him contest for a third term, when he had pledged to serve for only two terms.

For sure, it would be difficult to keep people indoors or from the streets not to celebrate military takeover when they have been serially pauperized and decimated by the ousted regime. They would surely come out with a sigh of relief, jubilate and see the new rulers as savior, who came to rescue them from the pangs of misrule and subjugation. The lesson therefore is for African rulers to follow the examples of the Great Nelson Mandela; the leaders of Botswana; recent leaders of Tanzania who do not believe in ruling forever or dying in office.

Hence, the antidote to stop the military boys from coming out of the barracks to the public space is good governance; knowing when to press the reset buttons to put a smile on the faces of your citizens and more importantly, making sure the constitution and rule of law are sacrosanct. I am not one of those who believe that democracy and its core values are antithetical to the nature and character of Nigerian or by extension, African politics. I have severally argued that with all its deficiencies, democracy remains the only veritable way of ensuring fair and credible representation of what the citizens want. There should however be room for a mixture of our peculiarities and culture when setting the rules, which will guide all the players in the democratic arena.

Without a doubt, the development in Gabon has further weakened the influence of France in the continent. Yet to recover from the humiliation in Niger and the consistent bashing from the rulers in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea, the French would have to find a way to stop the people from moving against them and their interests in their former colonies. Paris never saw it coming! It has for centuries subjugated these countries and made them to be subservient to the metropole-Paris- even after their so called independence. The structures that were planted by the departing colonial power was to make these countries dependent on the French, both politically, economically and militarily. This is why there are French military bases in most of these Francophone countries.

These military formations were to act as a buffer or to assist the various regimes they put in place in Africa, to wade off internal and external threats, for them to have easy access to the natural resources in these countries. Thus, they don’t care if the democracy that they so revered in their country (France) does not work in Africa, insofar as their interests are protected by the regime in power. Given the above context therefore, we are likely going to see more military takeovers in the continent if the rulers, most of whom, are ruling with impunity, do not quickly return to the table and negotiate power with the people and France will be the ultimate loser.



Aruna, a journalist writes from Ikeja

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COLUMN

The Trump Challenge and a call for patriotic voices

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By Tunde Rahman

In an age when the lines between truth and falsehood are getting increasingly blurred, I was nonplussed when President Trump labelled Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern on October 31. My incredulity was heightened given that his action stemmed from unproven allegations of genocide against Christians. Was it another deepfake facilitated through AI or simply a case of mistaken identity?

I was of the view that President Trump might have actually meant another country, and not Nigeria. He had, after all, adopted a similar approach in December 2020, which proved quite unsuccessful. President Biden, who succeeded him in office, rightly removed the designation barely a year later, in November 2021, convinced, as most had been, that Trump’s action was based on unverified allegations.

The US President has since doubled down on the labelling, threatening to take military action against Nigeria’s Islamists and terrorists. My scepticism derived from the premise that the facts on the ground, indeed the Nigerian situation, do not align with what can be termed a Christian genocide or genocide of any sort, as exemplified in the recent Israeli massacre of Palestinian people, including children.

It is thus not surprising that top Nigerian government functionaries – from Foreign Affairs Minister Yusuf Tuggah and Minister of Information and National Orientation Idris Mohammed, as well as most commentators – have already debunked the claim of Christian genocide or wholly Christian killings in Nigeria. The country may still be having some security issues to contend with; however, they argue that there are no targeted killings of Christians, let alone a Christian genocide.

Indeed, a recent investigative report by the BBC Global Disinformation Unit has picked holes in the threadbare claims of a “Christian genocide” in Nigeria. In very stark details, the report highlights how the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) and allied Igbo ethnic advocacy and pro-Biafra groups circulated inflated figures and unverified narratives.

Titled “Are Christians Being Persecuted in Nigeria as Trump Claims?” the report was authored by Olaronke Alo and Chiamaka Enendu of the BBC Global Disinformation Unit, along with a Lagos-based journalist, Ijeoma Ndukwe. The writers examined the origins and veracity of claims that over 125,000 Christians had been killed and 19,000 churches burned down in Nigeria since 2009.

Apparently driven by some ulterior motive, when contacted by the BBC, Intersociety, which first disseminated the allegation of Christian killings, failed to provide enumerated data or verifiable sources to substantiate its claims and demonstrate the integrity of the figures and their conclusions. Instead, the organisation accused the BBC of being politically compromised. Unfortunately, these unreliable data cobbled by Intersociety were the exact figures cited by the Conservative Media in the US, and prominent politicians like Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Riley Moore. Sadly, these same figures were what President Trump relied upon in his designation of Nigeria as a CPC.

The point is: there is no Christian persecution or mass killings in Nigeria. There are no state-sanctioned killings of Christians. The state does not condone it, as Nigeria has no state religion. President Bola Tinubu is a moderate Muslim who allows religious freedom in his household. He is not a religious fundamentalist. A man who so liberally allows religious freedom in his household cannot conceivably turn around and disallow the same in the larger society.

Beyond that, however, and that piece of good journalism and useful revelation by the BBC, which laid bare the claim of Nigerian Christian genocide, the CPC labelling nonetheless offers a useful cautionary tale in crisis management. And this is why the government’s response to the challenge has been subtle and restrained. It is indeed the right thing to do, given the threat that it represents – albeit for the wrong reason.

It may sound paradoxical, but the best way to prove that an argument proceeds from a false premise is by continually pointing out the falsehood therefrom. It’s truly heart-warming that the government has continued to navigate the present critical situation carefully, handling the matter diplomatically and laying out the facts and proper position of things to President Trump, the US Conservative Media, the evangelicals and politicians. That way, they can see their mistake and make informed decisions.

The ongoing momentum of the reforms undertaken by President Tinubu, which has engendered economic recovery, a slowdown in inflation, naira stability, and the gradual return of investors, must be maintained and carefully nurtured so that no development endangers it. The government must continue to stay on course. Remarkably, despite some fluctuations in the naira exchange rate over the past few days, the global investor confidence in the growing positive prospects of the Nigerian economy has remained on the rise. This is evident in the oversubscription of the country’s $2.3 billion eurobond last week.

Reacting to the development, last Thursday, during the Federal Executive Council meeting in Abuja, as he inaugurated two new ministers appointed to fill the cabinet vacancies, President Tinubu disclosed that the Federal Government was engaging diplomatically with the world on the issue.

“The most important thing is the fact that despite the political headwinds and the fear of our people, we will continue to engage with partners. The success of the $2.3 billion eurobond, which investors oversubscribed by 400%, is the most reassuring. So, the task ahead is immense; we are engaging the world diplomatically, and we assure all of you that we will defeat terrorism in this country.”

With the recent rejig of the nation’s military and security apparatus, following the appointment of new service chiefs and a reshuffle within the intelligence circle, the battle against terrorism, banditry, and violent crimes will be reinvigorated. President Tinubu implored Nigerians not to succumb to despair, assuring that the government would defeat every form of terrorism and secure every part of the country.

“Do we have problems? Yes. Are we challenged by terrorism? Yes. But we will defeat terrorism. We will overcome the CPC designation. Nigeria is one happy family, and we shall spare no effort until we eliminate all criminals from our society. We want our friends to help us as we step up our fight against terrorism, and we will eliminate it,” he said.

What the nation requires now are patriotic voices. Our leaders must stand up to be counted, while politicians, too, must drop their divisive togas and don the patriotic cap in defence of the country. The present challenge is neither about Nigerian Christians nor about the war against terrorists. There are clearly some other underlying motives. The US President cannot possibly love Nigeria more than the people of Nigeria. Former Kano State governor and National Leader of the Nigeria National Peoples Party, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and former Foreign Affairs Minister and ex-Jigawa State governor, who is also a top chieftain of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, Alhaji Sule Lamido, have seen through this unfair designation and have led the way in this direction.

More Nigerian leaders need to speak up as statesmen. By presenting the facts to President Trump and the international community in a convincing and non-adversarial manner, we must demonstrate that we are not a disgraced people and that Nigeria is by no means a “disgraced country.”

In all of this, though, we mustn’t fail to note the befuddling silence in the typically voluble quarters of our political space. So, it is fitting to ask: Where are former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his former deputy and defeated PDP 2023 presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, who is preparing for another presidential run in 2027, at this critical moment?

-Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media & Special Duties.

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Interrogating Nigeria’s efforts against terrorism

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By Fredrick Nwabufo

“The precision strikes, coupled with enhanced battlefield awareness provided by the theatre’s Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) assets, gave troops additional leverage and impetus to respond with overwhelming and lethal force,” —
Lieutenant Colonel Sani Uba, Spokesperson of the Joint Task Force North East Operation HADIN KAI (OPHK).

This was after Nigerian troops killed over 50 Boko Haram terrorists in a daring encounter in Borno State in October.

The battle was fierce as the death-dealers had forged themselves into a formidable number, but our troops overwhelmed them.

In the past eight months, the Nigerian military has dispatched over 592 terrorists in Borno State alone. In August, the military intercepted and killed, in one fell swoop, over 400 armed marauders who had converged to attack a village in Zamfara State.

Also, in August, top leaders of Ansaru terrorist group were arrested, and are currently undergoing prosecution.

Other successes have been recorded in the war against terrorism in the past two years across the North-West, North-East, and South-East.

Within this period, the number of terrorism-related deaths plummeted from 2,600 per month to less than 200. In March, the Global Terrorism Index reported that terrorist attacks were at their lowest in over a decade in Nigeria.

Over 10,000 victims of kidnapping in Zamfara, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Taraba, Adamawa, and many other states have been released.

With a combination of kinetic and non-kinetic measures, attacks in the South-East have been reduced by almost 80% while over 1,000 kidnap victims have been rescued without ransom payment.

There is increased security presence across vulnerable border communities, firming up protection in all parts of our nation, as well as enhanced strategic partnerships with our neighbours on counter-terrorism.

In addition, there are stringent efforts in curtailling access to small arms and light weapons by non-state actors. Security agencies recovered and destroyed over 5,000 military-grade rifles and intercepted over 20 gun-running networks in the past months.

The Tinubu administration has also intensified interagency collaboration and capacity building among state actors to ensure definitive success in the fight against insecurity.

The administration has made multi-million-dollar investments in modernised equipment for the nation’s security agencies and increased the defence and security budget.

The Office of the National Security Adviser also launched the Strategic Communication Interagency Policy Committee (SCIPC) for a strategic approach to engaging with the public and countering disinformation.

The list is not exhaustive, but the administration, in full apprehension of the foremost responsibility of government, which is ensuring the safety and security of all citizens, has remained committed to this end.

At the decoration of the newly-appointed service chiefs a few days ago, President Bola Tinubu gave them their marching orders. He said: “We cannot allow the crisis that began in 2009 to persist any longer. I charge you, as the heads of our nation’s armed forces, to carry out your duties with patriotic zeal. Nigerians expect results, not excuses. I also urge you to be innovative, pre-emptive, and courageous. Let’s stay ahead of those who seek to threaten our peace. Let us deploy technology where necessary. Security threats are constantly evolving and mutating. Of grave concern to our administration is the recent emergence of new armed groups in the North-Central, North-West, and parts of the South. We must not allow these new threats to fester. We must be decisive and proactive. Let us smash the new snakes right at the head.”

Evidently, he saw tomorrow, and his administration remains ever faithful to its bounden purpose of securing our nation and its peoples.



-Nwabufo is Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Engagement

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Preventing Coups in Nigeria through Confederation

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By Dr. Dele Oluwatade

The recent rumoured coup attempt in Nigeria in October 2025 underscores the pressing need for a fundamental shift in the nation’s governmental structure to prevent future coups. Adopting a confederation system would be a viable solution, making it extremely challenging for any single group to seize control of the entire country.

Nigeria’s current unitary system, coupled with a half-hearted presidential structure, remains vulnerable to both political and military coups. The absence of a simultaneous approach to problem-solving has exacerbated the nation’s challenges. The recent coup attempt can be attributed to legislative and executive sluggishness in addressing terrorism and insecurity.

President Tinubu’s task is reminiscent of Esther’s biblical mission (“If I perish, I perish”), highlighting the urgent need to rescue Nigeria’s diverse nationalities from Fulani hostilities without delay. This is as crucial as implementing economic reforms. The lack of parallel political reforms has exposed the nation to political and military opportunists.

In a confederation system, the likelihood of a successful coup would be significantly reduced. With at least four autonomous states, it’s likely that some would reject such an attempt, thereby preventing a single group from dominating the entire country.

To address this issue, the following steps become essential:
Constitutional Review: The National Assembly should review and consider implementing a confederation system for Nigeria before the end of 2025.
Prioritizing Political Reforms: The government should prioritize political reforms to support ongoing economic reforms.
Developing a Confederation Model: Nigerian strategists and political experts should develop a suitable confederation model that would prevent both political and military coups, making it difficult for any group to take over the six autonomous confederation republics.

Dr. Dele Oluwatade
Former National President, Christian Association of Nigeria ( YOUTH-CAN).

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