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2027 Presidency: Why Obi Stands No Chance

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By Wole Olujobi

In the last few years, Dr Peter Obi of APGA, PDP, Labour Party, semi-SDP, ADC, PRP applicant and NDC, has desperately been jumping from one political party to the other over a consuming ambition to be elected as Nigeria’s President. As a rule and habit, Obi hates to build for a political habitation: his method is nomadic, usurping the structures of existing parties, and when crisis erupts, he bolts to join another party in a chain of defections never witnessed in the political history of Nigeria; the country that needs builders that can weather political and economic storms to build a virile, prosperous nation.
Never for him a leader that builds structures or nurtures a vision that attracts followership for a common agenda unlike other focused leaders that are faithful and loyal to their political persuasions to achieve their political dreams, as explained recently by a public analyst, journalist and scholar, Professor Okey Ikechukwu, in a television commentary.

According to him, a serious leader stays the course, builds and sustains solid structures and maintains faithful followership to succeed in politics, unlike what Obi is doing in his makeshift politics of expediency with no discernible vision and followership’s loyalty.

This is what Barry Avotu, the leader of “Obidient Movement” explained in a well-publicised televised press conference that he and other leaders formed the pro-Obi movement for a noble cause only for Dr Peter Obi to hijack the movement and impose his whims on the group, leading to the rejection and expulsion of Obi by the group.

Another Obi’s ally, Prince Kennedy Ahanotu and his group, also rejected Obi as their leader, declaring that Obi is not a builder of men while Obi’s former spokesman, Kenneth Okonkwo, declared that Obi runs a visionless politics of gambling for self-elevation.

Another albatross is Obi’s open support for IPOB in his condemnation of the Supreme Court judgment on the proscription of IPOB and its designation as a terrorist organisation, which has since stoked fears that Obi can leverage the Presidency to pursue ethnic agenda to break up Nigeria.

Critics argue that Obi is neck-deep in alleged Biafra nationalism so much so that when on behalf of Anambra State he deployed state money to invest in the International Breweries Limited, brewers of Hero beer, Obi allegedly ensured that Biafran insignia (logo) and colours (red, yellow, black and green) were deliberately chosen as the label of Hero Beer to foster a deep emotional connection with the Igbo people and send a message across the South East that he shared in the dream to divide Nigeria to ensure that Biafra becomes a sovereign nation. And this is clearly against the interest of the vast majority of innocent and hardworking Igbo people who are living and conducting their businesses peacefully among their compatriots across Nigeria!

This much former Borno Governor, Alhaji Ali Modu Sheriff, explained in a Channels television interview when he said that Northerners understand that Obi’s agenda is to divide Nigeria and so they will never support or vote for Obi in his desperate agenda to divide the country through the instrumentality of presidential powers.
“This is why Obi, when he faces difficulty in getting the presidential ticket in one party, he moves to the other to get the ticket” Sheriff explained, adding that his burning agenda is to divide Nigeria through presidential powers and the North will never vote for him to help him divide the country.

Although Kwankwaso had sought to deflate Sheriff’s postulation quoting NNPP’s score in the 2023 presidential election, fact is that more than 70 percent of Kwankwaso’s loyalists in Kwankwasiyya Movement, including the current Kano Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, National and State Assembly members and all commissioners in Kano State have all defected to APC working for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Kwankwaso’s argument is also punctured by the reality of former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau’s massive bloc in Kano politics now working for APC.

Again, for painting the 2023 election as a religious and ethnic war, an average Muslim sees Obi as a man that will use his executive powers as President to advance religious and ethnic advantage in favour of Christians.

Another problem is Onitsha crisis in 2006 during which over 100 Northerners were reportedly killed and markets belonging to them burnt down. Reports suggested that when respected Northern Emirs offered to intervene to douse tensions, Obi as the governor allegedly refused to hold a peace meeting with them.


This fear of ethnic bias is also further reinforced by the recent alleged Obi’s manipulative conduct when the FCT chapter of the Arewa Consultative Forum Chairman, Alhaji Musa Aliyu, accused Dr Peter Obi of “demonstrating deep-seated bias against the Arewa community by working to overturn a delicate, mutually agreed zoning arrangement established to maintain regional balance in the nation’s capital”.

The group expressed shock that “despite these outcomes being the product of a transparent democratic process, high-level maneouvers are reportedly underway allegedly by Obi to substitute the name of Grema, the son of the Sarkin Hausawa of Abuja, with that of Uchenna Harris Okonkwo, a serving federal lawmaker from Anambra State who allegedly failed to secure a return ticket in his own home constituency”.


Another problem is his alleged opaque and cloudy approach to all issues. For example, during the 2023 presidential election, Obi was dubbed the “soapbox champion of beautiful lies” on account of dexterity in cooking alleged fraudulent opinion polls by discredited pollsters that placed Obi above far more popular and credible candidates. Recklessly, opinion polls, which ought to guide voting behaviour as in the Western world, were turned into a bazaar and casino for political manipulations for fraudulent advantage.

For instance, a discredited polls agency, (the NOI Polls) declared that Obi maintained “a solid overall lead” ahead of Tinubu, PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar; and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) in the 2023 presidential poll. It all turned out a hoax allegedly choreographed by Obi in alleged fraudulent device to deceive Nigerians into supporting him, as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu roundly trounced Obi and other candidates in the results that emerged in the presidential poll.

This poll information analysis company had earlier falsely predicted victory for Prof. Kolapo Olusola Eleka of PDP in the July 14, 2018 Ekiti State governorship election, which Dr Kayode Fayemi of APC resoundingly won, just like NOI Polls failed in 2015 when it falsely predicted that President Goodluck Jonathan had over 70 per cent chance above APC candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, who NOI had earlier rated as the fourth in the ballot, but who eventually emerged as the winner with a wide margin in the presidential contest.

In its polls before presidential primaries in 2014, NOI had rated Buhari fourth behind Jonathan, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso and Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos, in that order, among other prospective presidential aspirants, even though Fasola never told anyone he would contest the election. In the end, Buhari that NOI had rated number four roundly trounced Jonathan to win the 2015 presidential election, which NOI had predicted Jonathan to win through dishonest cyber manipulations that devalue Nigerians’ worth as decent human beings.

It is in this context that Dr Peter Obi should be put on the scale to assess him from the standpoint of integrity and trustworthiness, before Nigerians, again, gamble with their lives for Obi’s leadership of the country.

In 2013, Obi was quoted in the media as saying: “I will not only remain in APGA, I will also die for APGA.” But when he later left APGA, he refused to commit suicide.

“The day I leave APGA, which I have made up my mind never to leave, I will quit politics.” But after he left APGA, he became more active in politics desperately angling to become president.
“Igbos don’t need APGA in Aso Rock for them to achieve their aims.” (But he started nursing presidential ambition to live in Aso Rock since his days in APGA. Or if we may ask; what exactly are the Igbo’s aims they want to achieve without living in the Aso Rock? Perhaps Ali Modu Sheriff has provided the answer.)

“Anambarians should not vote for PDP. PDP is a party alien to the Igbo. PDP is synonymous with destruction,” but Obi later defected to the same destructive and evil PDP.

At the Chatham House in London in 2023, Obi deceived the entire world when he lied and lied and even lied against himself to feign competence.

According to the Premium Times report on Chatham House event at the time, Obi, in order to paint APC-led Federal Government black, claimed that apart from Venezuela, Nigeria was at that time the only OPEC nation that could not meet its oil production quota. But verification from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed that from September to December 2022, none of the OPEC member countries had met its production quota.


Obi also lied that Nigeria had about 60 per cent of youth unemployment, whereas NBS dashboard showed that Nigeria had 42.5 per cent youth unemployment.

He claimed there were 20 million out-of-school children in Northern Nigeria alone, whereas the total out-of-school children in the entire Nigeria was 20 million, according to the global data on out-of-school children published in September 2022 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO).

Obi claimed that Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 2015 was $2,550, eventhough World Bank’s data put it at $2,679.

He also lied that Nigeria’s total health budget was below N2.5 trillion from 2015 – 2021, whereas it was N2.50 trillion.
Obi also lied: “As of 2015, Nigeria’s total debt stock is about N15 trillion. But today (January 2023), with CBN ways and means, we owe over N75 trillion.” But Nigeria’s public debt in December 2015 stood at N12.6 trillion, according to official data from Nigeria’s Debt Management Office. Nigeria’s total debts combined with CBN’s loans was N67.8 trillion, not over N75 trillion, as falsely claimed by Obi at the Chatham House.

Also, at one of his campaign stops while canvassing for votes in 2023, Obi was quoted as saying: “I signed at least 5,000 certificates of occupancy while in office as governor. If you find one piece of land allocated to me, directly or indirectly, I will stop campaigning for President.”

Two days after he falsely made that claim, social media was awash with a photocopy of alleged land allocation approval in alleged favour of Obi by the Anambra State Housing Development Corporation and the approval to the alleged beneficiary was addressed to him as the Executive Governor of Anambra State. After that revelation to expose his lie, Obi kept sealed lips.

The latest stunt was the airport incident which Obi alleged was a plot to kill him to prevent him from running for the nation’s Presidency. He never told Nigerians that his disorderly conduct at the airport over illegal parking at the restricted area caused confrontation between him and the airport officials. Instead, he chose Adolf Hitler’s method in his dangerous lies to lie that government was after his life and businesses. Nigerians should therefore not be surprised if in the next few days rabid Obi’s supporters set up fake killer gangs in choreographed attacks to kill Obi in order to discredit Tinubu to stoke public rebellion against his government for sympathy, resulting in setting off a chain of reactions to stoke violence and create opportunity to widen pro-Biafra agitations through recklessly seditious acts. It is just gratifying that the close circuit television footage of the incident proved that Obi is a shameless, heartless and incorrigible liar.

Up till now, Obi has not explained to Anambra people the impropriety in his alleged involvement in alleged criminal conspiracy in the famed Pandora Files where secret public assets allegedly cornered in Anambra were held overseas allegedly in his family’s favour as if weilding power is a legal way to illegally corner public assets.

The electoral process ought not to be a call to trust the leaders; it is all about seen leaders as trustworthy and a call for leaders to be more trustworthy, for the most important aspect of leadership is integrity, otherwise when things go bad, lack of trust in leadership often gets people killed.

For instance, the 36th American President Lyndon B. Johnson once lied to the Americans that led to the Vietnam War. President Johnson lied to the Americans about attacks by Vietnam on U.S. destroyer warships, the same ships that later launched the Vietnam War. The problem was that those attacks never actually happened at all. As a result of the alleged attacks, the American Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, giving President Johnson the power to “take all necessary measures to repel any armed attack against the forces of the United States and to prevent further attacks.”

This resulted in a brutal war in which America lost fortunes and unnecessary wastes on both sides.

The leader of Nazi Germany, Adolf Hitler, borrowed from that philosophy too when he said: “If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed,” even if that results in apocalypse like the World War, which Hitler stoked through lies. Such a leader is not only unfaithful to his oath of office, he is also dangerous to the society.

What Nigerians need is a honest leadership to chart a transparent course in tackling myriads of crises bedeviling the nation as Nigerians struggle to overcome the hardships imposed on them by long years of irresponsible leaderships that took Nigerians for granted through deceits in the ways they have been governed.

How long will Nigeria continue to recycle liars as government leaders at the time that honesty, trust, integrity and credibility in leadership are what the nation requires to weather the storms of the present disillusionment imposed by dishonest leadership?

All these are compounded by the embarrassing quality of Obi’s performance in public discourse at a time the nations of the world present their cerebral leaders to preside over their affairs.

Generally speaking, a leader who lies is dangerous to the lives of his followers and the larger society. Nigeria needs a competent and upright President; not an unmanageable, pathological, compulsive, dangerous and incorrigible liar, particularly now that NDC has sold out its presidential cake to the Annaniah and Saphira of the Nigerian politics.


* Olujobi, a journalist, who served as Deputy Director of Media and Communications in 2026 BAO Campaign Organisation, writes from Ado-Ekiti

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Profile of Atiku’s lobbying and contact man in the USA. Who is pushing the bogus FBI criminal files:

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INVESTIGATIVE PROFILE: Karl-Marx Edward Ikemefuna William George Okeke-Von Batten
Alias: Dr. Karl Von Batten, Karl Von Batten, Edward Ikemefuna

Nationality: Nigerian-born, US-based

Profession: Lobbyist, Self-described Policy Advisor

Firm: Von Batten-Montague-York, L.C. (VBMY)

SUMMARY
Karl Von Batten is a controversial figure in Washington, D.C., known for securing multi-million dollar lobbying contracts from African governments and political figures while facing persistent allegations of fraud regarding his academic credentials, professional identity, and ability to deliver promised political influence. He is often described by critics and investigative journalists as a “scam lobbyist” who sells illusions of access to the US government.

1. DUBIOUS ACADEMIC CREDENTIALS

Alleged Fabrication:
Von Batten claims to hold a PhD and degrees from elite institutions such as Columbia University, Harvard, and others. However, multiple investigations assert he “never set foot” in these institutions and that his PhD is “phony.”

The “Bio” Scam:
His professional biography, used to secure contracts, lists a “top-flight” academic history that investigators claim is entirely invented. This fabricated background was allegedly used to convince foreign governments (e.g., DRC, Somalia) of his expertise and influence.

Unverified Affiliations:
While he maintains profiles on academic networks like ResearchGate listing publications and a Columbia University affiliation, no official records confirm his enrollment, graduation, or employment at these institutions. These profiles appear to be self-maintained rather than institutionally verified.
2. QUESTIONABLE LOBBYING PRACTICES

“Pay-to-Play” Influence:
Von Batten has secured massive contracts, including a reported $1.2 million deal with former Nigerian VP Atiku Abubakar and millions from the DRC government. Critics allege these payments were for “influence” that never materialized.

Unauthorized Policy Announcements:
He has been caught making false claims about US foreign policy. For example, he publicly announced US military cooperation with the DRC before any official government statement, leading to accusations that he was selling “illusions” to gullible clients.

FARA Violations & Shadow Entities:
He has registered as a foreign agent for clients like the Federal Government of Somalia and the DRC. However, reports suggest he sometimes operates through “pseudo-charitable organizations” (e.g., United Somalia Alliance) that are legally prohibited from engaging in political lobbying, potentially violating US tax and lobbying laws.

3. HIGH-PROFILE SCANDALS

The DRC Implosion (2025):
The DRC government paid Von Batten millions to manage their image in Washington. When US Senator Ronny Jackson exposed DRC corruption, Von Batten’s lobbying efforts collapsed. The DRC realized they had been defrauded, paying for a “fraudulent operation” run by a man with a fake identity.

Somalia/Somaliland Controversy:
His work for Somalia to block recognition of Somaliland was criticized for having “limited clients” that did not match his “outsized bravado.”

Atiku Abubakar Contract (2026):
A reported $1.2 million contract with Nigerian politician Atiku Abubakar was signed by a third party (Fabiyi A. Oladimeji) without Atiku’s direct signature.
4. PATTERN OF DECEPTION

Identity Shifting:
He uses multiple names (Karl Von Batten, Edward Ikemefuna, Karl-Marx Edward) to obscure his background and create a false sense of legitimacy.

Exaggerated Titles:
He frequently uses the title “Dr.” and claims to be a “senior government advisor” without verifiable evidence of such roles.

-Silence on Allegations:
Despite widespread media coverage of his alleged fraud, Von Batten has not publicly addressed the specific accusations regarding his academic credentials or the collapse of his lobbying contracts.

5. LEGAL AND PROFESSIONAL STATUS

Lobbying Registrations:
He is listed in Lobbying Disclosure Act (LDA) and Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA) filings, which provide a paper trail of his activities but do not verify his claims.

Corporate History:
He has been associated with inactive or shuttered entities such as “Health Informatics Corporation” and “America Educates,” further complicating his professional history.

Current Standing:
While he continues to operate in Washington, his reputation is severely damaged, and he is widely regarded by journalists and political analysts as a figure of fraud rather than legitimate influence.

CONCLUSION
Karl Von Batten represents a case study in the exploitation of foreign governments by unscrupulous lobbyists. His career is built on a foundation of alleged academic fraud, exaggerated claims of influence, and a pattern of securing large payments for services that appear to be non-existent or ineffective. His story serves as a warning about the need for due diligence when engaging US-based lobbying firms, particularly those with unverifiable credentials and a history of controversy.

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Atiku’s Subsidy Push and Echoes of Desperation

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By Tunde Rahman

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s new policy shift toward bringing back the fuel subsidy is a welcome return to proper political debate and the path of rectitude. It contrasts sharply with his futile search for forged certificates and drug indictments in the run-up to the 2023 election and his latest goof about President Tinubu’s age.

Alhaji Atiku stated last week that if elected in 2027, he would “bring back fuel subsidy” by subsidising fuel production. He even repudiated his media aide who tried to embellish the proposal, not meaning to call it what it truly is – reinstating the ill-conceived fuel subsidy scheme. That alone is a telling indicator of what his inner circle thinks of his populist gambit.

Atiku’s economic idea may sound compassionate, which is what the ADC candidate really wants to achieve, hoping such will win him enough votes to be the country’s president in 2027 in his seventh attempt.
But a closer look shows the proposal is a return to the same failed economics that kept Nigeria down for 40 years. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took the difficult decision in May 2023 to end the fuel subsidy regime. It was not popular. But it was necessary, indeed expedient. And three years on, the results prove why turning back the wheels should not even be contemplated.

The old subsidy bled the treasury dry. From January to May 2023 alone, when the subsidy ended, the Buhari administration spent over N3 trillion. According to official figures, between 2006 and 2023, Nigeria spent over ₦15 trillion on fuel subsidy. The government financed the bill through debts and “ways and means”. That is money that should have built schools, roads and bridges, and financed education. Instead, it subsidised smuggling to neighbouring countries and made a few marketers billionaires overnight.

“Production subsidy”, as ex-VP Atiku coined it, is still a subsidy. If government must pay the difference between cost and pump price, then we are back to borrowing to fund fuel consumption. We cannot build a $1 trillion economy on that model.
Since the removal of subsidy, we have seen real change. Deregulation is finally working. Local refining has been substantially enhanced. The Dangote Refinery is now fully on stream. Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna are now under pressure to produce and compete. That would never happen if the government were still paying people to import. Foreign exchange pressure is easing. We no longer spend $10 billion yearly to import fuel we cannot account for.

Importantly, the government is redirecting resources. The savings are funding student loans, Creditcorp, CNG buses, wage awards, defence spending, and national and sub-national infrastructure. That is subsidy to the people, not subsidy to the middlemen.

Reversing this now is telling investors: “Nigeria’s policy can change with every election.” No serious investor will build a refinery or depot under such uncertainty.
The alternative is targeted relief, not blanket subsidy.
President Tinubu understands Nigerians are feeling the pain of higher pump prices. But he also understands that the answer is not a return to 2012.

The Tinubu administration chose a better path: CNG conversion to cut transport costs, conditional cash transfers, and support for local production like the Naira-for-crude policy adopted for Dangote Refinery and other local producers.
These are targeted, scrupulous interventions. They help the poor directly without creating a black hole in the budget. These initiatives need to be intensified and further expanded. Indeed, those ends were the primary focus of President Tinubu’s meeting with the governors last Thursday in Abuja.

Subsidising production will still distort the market. It is still a pathway to fraud. And it will still mean less money for education, security, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Subsidy removal is already delivering. The country’s GDP growth rate at 3.89% is the biggest economic expansion in recent times. Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased for the second month to 15.43% in July 2026. The Nigerian currency is stabilising against major currencies, the stock market is expanding, and the country’s foreign reserves have grown exponentially and presently stand at over $53 billion. This helps build confidence in investors.

If these favourable macroeconomic indicators have not fully impacted the living standards of our people, it is only a matter of time, in my view, given the ongoing positive trajectory.
Leadership sometimes entails tough choices. President Tinubu’s removal of subsidy was not a whimsical decision. He did it because it was the right thing to do.
Real reform requires courage. The easy thing is to return to a failed regime and buy temporary applause as Atiku seeks to do. That would be sheer populism.

Nigeria tried subsidy for four decades, and we ended up importing fuel while exporting crude. We tried it, and it led to a debt pile-up. We tried it, and our refineries collapsed. 2027 should not be about going back to fuel subsidy as Atiku is canvassing. It should be about staying the course until local refining, competition, and CNG fully drive prices down.

We respect Alhaji Atiku’s right to propose alternatives. But Nigerians must ask: do we want relief today that creates crisis tomorrow, or do we endure a little longer to build a Nigeria that works without fraud and waste?
President Tinubu chose reform over rhetoric. He chose a promising future over a decadent past. Returning to subsidy is not progress. It is a U-turn Nigeria cannot afford.

*Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media & Special Duties.

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Tortoise and the $1bn rain that came after the harvest

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By Festus Adedayo


If you hopped onto a horse galloping in a race inside the Nigerian First Lady’s tummy, its hoof would not hit a single stumble. That was how unmistakable the air of triumph was in Abuja last week. The catalyst for this sudden, infectious jubilation was the grand launch of the $1 billion Household Prosperity and Empowerment Social Protection Project (HOPE-SP) inside the State House Banquet Hall. At the centre of the spectacle stood Pastor Remi Tinubu, whose mini-khimar – the traditional scarf covering the head, shoulders and bosom of Muslim women – flapped excitedly as she paced the rostrum. The poor velvet scarf seemed itself in a celebratory mood, synchronizing perfectly with the carefully orchestrated joy hovering over the rocks of the Federal Capital Territory.

It is three years and three months after President Bola Tinubu famously declared an abrupt end to the petrol subsidy. On one of his off-cuff junkets to France, he attributed his yanking it off to a spirit that suddenly pounced on him. With the $1 billion HOPE-SP, the administration was loudly signaling to Nigerians that real, tangible hope had finally arrived.

“What’s better than money?” Crime thriller king, James Hadley Chase, asked decades ago. Madam was the pond-skater, Ìròmi, dancing on the face of the river. $1 billion was the Kongo, the drumstick, with which the drummer hit the raw face of the hide; this time, not underneath the river. You could see the drummer itself inside the Banquet Hall. You would conclude the Khimar had just won a contest. As the Pastor paced the rostrum, her Khimar, wary of being left out of the joy, disentangles from the embrace of her neck periodically. And flaps on her laps. Madam rescues the insolent folk, straps it again on her neck, like a mother forcefully hoists a needlessly crying irritant child on her back. The scarf mirrors the infectious joy hovering over the rocks of the FCT.

To the administration’s loyalists, this $1 billion gamble was the ultimate trump card, a definitive response to Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and the relentless commune of ungrateful critics who have spent months hammering the President’s economic policies. Waziri Adamawa had not just become a pest to the bazaar in Abuja. He had become a piercing arrow that penetrates right inside the esophagus of the First Family. You could see the recent flurry of frenzies of presidential hirelings trying to outpace one another in the job of deflecting Atiku’s tantrums.

Lately, Atiku has adopted the posture of an unsparing Wolé-Wolé (sanitary inspector), peering into every corner of the presidential family’s cooking pot. He brings to mind Irish Assistant Commissioner of Police John Lynn, the CID official nicknamed Ọkùnrin Oníjògbòn yẹn (That Troublesome Man) by Mama H.I.D. Awolowo. During the dark political crisis of the Western Region in 1962, when Chief Obafemi Awolowo was locked in battle with the federal powers-that-be and their region accomplices, Lynn’s team relentlessly raided Awo’s official residence at No. 7 Bell Avenue, Ikoyi, and his home in Ikenne. Exasperated during one such intrusive raids, Mama H.I.D. famously marched into her kitchen, hauled out a cooking pot, and asked Lynn if he would like to inspect that as well! Today, Atiku, like Lynn, has become a piercing arrow penetrating the esophagi of Aso Rock, leaving presidential hirelings scrambling to outpace one another in deflecting his political arrows.

Predictably, on the $1b bailout purportedly for Nigeria’s suffering masses, both Atiku and Obi raced to the blacksmith’s forge for a weapon with which to attack what they view as an expensive medicine-after-death. They see the administration’s sudden benevolence through the lens of a classic Yoruba proverb: “Tèmi ò ṣòro, tí kì í jẹ kí ọmọ alágbẹdẹ ní idà” – it is the ambivalence of the blacksmith’s son, who insists that urgent tasks are simple and can wait, that leaves him without a sword when crisis strikes.

Yet inside the State House, the conviviality continued unabated. An old man sitting by the Banquet Hall doorstep eventually caught the First Lady’s attention, drawing on her Ososami, Ibadan upbringing of kindheartedness to the elderly. He implored her to take a fable to the President, which he said he amply entitled ‘The Tortoise, the Weaverbird, and the Midnight Harvest’. It goes thus:
In an ancient animal kingdom, Alábahun, Tortoise the Trickster, was king. He held suzerainty over forest activities, as well as on all crawling and flying animals. On all of them, he held supreme authority. Surrounded by all animals in the kingdom, Tortoise radiated the majesty of his regal stool.

Then, suddenly, like a child seized by an unannounced convulsion, King Tortoise announced to the generality of animals in the kingdom that he had just discovered an answer to the food crisis of the kingdom. Henceforth, he proclaimed in a sudden decree, the communal granary, forest animals’ commonwealth, would thenceforth be locked. All animals, he proclaimed, were banned from foraging in this fertile valley source of daily meal. Keeping the granary locked, said King Tortoise, would bring greater prosperity and wealth to the kingdom sooner than the animals imagined. The animals were aghast. To them, it was a case of the proverbial Weaverbird (Eye-ègà) using its beak to pull out what it had moulded, which the Yoruba translate to Ègà f’enu kó’lé, ègà f’enu è tu”. Where in the name of prosperity, does a leader kill his people in instalment?

As if the animals were seers, a terrible famine gripped the forest. It met bitter outcry. Weaverbirds (Ègà) and other forest creatures grew frail and emaciated, gathering at the palace gates to weep for their dying young. But, Alábahun remained locked inside his high stone walls. Palace canaries (Ìbákà), like Old Major in Orwell’s Animal Farm, sang loudly of a golden future time of riches more than mind can picture urging the populace to keep toiling for freedom’s sake. “…For that day we all must labor. Though we die before it break…” Once in a while, Alábahun himself walked to the palace balcony to see the starving animals. In sweet-smelling voice, he pleaded understanding, and need for sacrifice today for a better tomorrow. “Endure the dry season for a glorious harvest” was the palace mantra.

Apparently suffocated by the cries of the dying animals whose hungry voices grew too loud to ignore, Alábahun finally directed the royal guards to prize off the lock of the granary and unlock the forest’s treasury. He ordered a massive, unprecedented caravan of grain to be distributed to the starving animals.

The grand wagons finally rolled into the public square. As they did, the palace expected songs of praise for this royal benevolence. Alábahun stood upon his balcony, anticipating the forest to erupt in dance. King Tortoise stood upon his balcony expecting wild applause, but met only a heavy, mournful silence. The silence below was heavy.
“You watched us perish for seasons, and now you bring out baskets of corn. Is it for our funeral or that of our children? Is it now when hundreds of our children have already closed their eyes in life-long sleeps?” cried the older animals.

A fierce debate divided the forest. To many, it was mourning time. Palace’s grand grain distribution came at the animal kingdom’s most vulnerable time. It was a frantic afterthought that could not undo the months of harrowing pains and slow starvation. The heavy rain of abundance had finally fallen, but only after the soil had completely hardened into stone. As the old adage warns: “Òjò t’ó rò l’éyìn ìkórè kò lè gba iṣu t’ó ti joro” – the rain that falls after the harvest is over cannot save the rotten yam.
Animals who deigned to collect the grains were put off by palace couriers’ antics. They pilfered so many sacks of grains and the few left had been eaten up by weevils. They dissolved into dust even before they got to the nests of the poorest birds and holes of kwashiokor-ed animals. The wind blew the husks into the dry air, creating a golden dust storm that blurred the line between the palace and the valley. The heavy rain of abundance had finally fallen, but it came only after the soil had completely hardened into stone.

“That is the end of my story” the old man said.

And I suddenly woke up. A river-like beads of sweats cascaded off the pores of my flesh.

It was a dream!

Same last week when the $1 billion social package was launched, the administration announced that state governors will soon roll out lower transport fares nationwide. They will use Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and electric vehicles. It will be backed by a planned network of 1,000 refueling stations and over 120,000 converted vehicles. Administration supporters frame these roll-outs as a long-awaited answer to public suffering. Like the crowd that cheered Christ’s entry into Jerusalem – where He warned the scolding Pharisees that the stones would cry out if the people stayed quiet – the First Lady’s flapping Khimar served as Aso Rock’s celebratory “stone,” cheering relief where critics saw only ruin.

To the opposition, however, this sudden rush of belated interventions by a president who fiddled for three years and three months while the people died reflects the tragic pattern of an economic wastrel. This parable of the wastrel reminds me of a musician after my heart. He was High Chief Adedara Ar’ú’nra L’ójà Oba,legendary Ijesa musician. Those days while walking the streets of Oke-Oye in Ilesa, I saw ‘Dedara, as he called himself, playing draught with country-folks somewhere close to Saint Margaret Girls’ School. He was Ijesa’s sonic signature, their musical identity and cultural signature. Adedara presented Ijesa people’s unique musical repertoire and history to the outside world.

Adedara then famously sang of the dog-in-the-manger, the wastrel who refuses to farm, prevents others from farming, and seizes both their hoe and cutlass: “Kò ṣe, kò ṣe, kò j’ólúrè se; ó gb’okọ Olúrè, ó dè gb’àḍá rè o.” The wastrel was the man who declines to embark on a productive venture and would not allow anyone to so do; he seizes the hoe of the willing and his cutlass as well.
The fundamental flaw of the Aso Rock social protection model lies in its heavy reliance on transactional optics over structural economic survival. In three years, three months, Tinubu more than quadrupled tax payments; mercilessly devalued the Naira; replaced astronomical school fees with loans; pedaled food prices to rooftop height and flushed proceeds to federal hangers-on and state governors.

Nigerians have died in their thousands; many lost their manhood as the economy castrated them from performing their household head roles; businesses collapsed; many committed suicide. High drug prices have sent many to their graves. Yet, Tinubu’s Ìbàkà bird aides reel out robust World Bank economic figures to invalidate our oozing flood of tears. If economy under this government has had positive effects on the people, why celebrate this $1b with this fanfare? Why is it now that government suddenly realizes that hopeless Nigerians need hope and buffer? What lifeline will government give the dead and their mourning families?

Distributing grains like Alábahun did – or Naira, as Tinubu proposes to the so-called poorest of the poor, turns governance into an act of emergency relief distribution, rather than sustainable empowerment. This is after policy fires had already scorched the economic landscape. When a government inflicts macro-economic shock therapy on its citizens, without immediate, synchronized safety nets as the Tinubu government has done since May 29, 2023, any eventual palliative, no matter how grandly packaged inside state banquet halls, feels less like a lifeline, with greater optics of an afterthought. You cannot systematically subject a populace to severe economic attrition for three years and three months, yet expect a sudden shower of palliatives to convert widespread mourning into dancing as Alábahun did.

Ultimately, the $1 billion HOPE-SP initiative risks becoming another monument to misplaced timing. Some even allege it is coming this late because it is a recipe for vote buying and not targeted at the Nigerian poor per se. Again, if we still have the underlying cost of living this painfully high, temporary cash drops and subsidized transport schemes will be gulped whole by inflation, leaving the structural roots of poverty still buried deep. The administration must realize that true “Renewed Hope” is not measured by the flutter of celebratory scarves in Abuja, but by whether the ordinary Nigerian can afford to eat, work, and survive without waiting for King Tortoise’s belated granary to open.

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