By Augustine Akhilomen

With just days left for the conduct of the much expected Osun governorship election, the political atmosphere in the state remains tense, coupled with the fact that there are palpable fears that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may not be fair to all political parties despite it’s consistent assurance of conducting a transparent, credible, free and fair election.

Although 14 political parties are on the ballot, political analysts say the campaign dynamics, political intrigues and strength of the major contenders have effectively narrowed the race to the All Progressives Congress (APC), which candidate, Alhaji Bola Oyebamiji is seeking to reclaim Osun, and the Accord, which is banking on Governor Ademola Adeleke’s incumbency, popularity and record in office.

For INEC, the poll represents yet another opportunity to reinforce public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process following the reforms and technological innovations introduced in recent election cycles.

“The Osun governorship election is a very important election because of its proximity to the 2027 general election. We are determined to ensure that the process is free, fair, and credible,” INEC Chairman Prof. Joash Amupitan said in a recent statement.

The election is therefore not merely a contest among political parties; it is also a referendum on the country’s electoral management system and the ability of democratic institutions to deliver credible, transparent and peaceful elections ahead of the 2027 general election.

Again, the political environment in Osun has historically been among the most competitive in Nigeria. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, elections in the state have frequently been characterised by intense rivalry, violence, legal disputes and narrow victory margins.

The state’s electorate has demonstrated an independent voting culture, often resisting assumptions based solely on party dominance in the South-West. Political allegiance has however shifted over the years, reflecting local governance issues, candidates’ personalities and grassroots mobilisation rather than ideological considerations alone. This history makes every governorship election in Osun particularly unpredictable and interesting to watch.

However, the recent happenings in the state, starting with the arrest and detention of the secretary to the Osun State Government (SSG), Teslim Igbalaye, for alleged vote buying, and the arrest of the Osun State Commissioner for Environment, Mr. Mayowa Asejoorin, in connection with gunshots fired at the APC members on Saturday In Ilesa by the police, have raised a question mark on the police’s neutrality ahead of the election.

The police are meant to protect the interest of the people and not be used as a tool to frustrate or intimidate politicians. Such action will only portray a negative picture about the police heading to next week’s election. This is coming in the wake of repeated assurance by the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Tunji Disu that the force will be unbiased and neutral before, during and after the elections.

Then, just last week Thursday, in a move that came as a surprise to most Nigerians and that was out rightly condemned, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) froze the Osun State Government account with days to the election. The development came hours after Governor Ademola Adeleke alleged that the EFCC was planning to freeze the state’s accounts and those of top government officials.

Despite the fact that president Bola Tinubu has intervened on the matter by directing EFCC to immediately return to court and vacate the order freezing the accounts of the Osun State Government, the move was seen as an attempt by the federal government to intimidate and frustrate the state government by all means and to make it difficult for Governor Adeleke to retain his governorship position.

Most observers were of the view that there was no ground whatsoever to justify the action of the EFCC with election just around the corner. They faulted the anti-graft agency for being used by the presidency to circumvent the democratic process in the countdown to the Osun governorship election. “The timing was particularly damaging”, says Senator Babafemi Ojudu. “An anti-corruption investigation may be legitimate, but when enforcement action is taken only days before an election, its timing becomes inseparable from its political consequences”, Ojudu said in a statement.

Ojudu asked how a federal agency could take such a step with grave political, economic and democratic consequences without anticipating the damage it could do to the credibility of both the federal government and the electoral process.

But then, questions on the lips of political observers remain: will INEC and other critical agencies be truly independent to discharge their duty without any form of interference from the federal level?

Reacting to the development, Dele Momodu, publisher of Ovation magazine and a close friend of Governor Adeleke said the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has lost the confidence of many Nigerians.

Momodu cited the forthcoming governorship election in Osun state as an example, saying that despite being an election in just one of Nigeria’s 36 states, it already resembles a war.



“I think INEC has a lot of work to do and a lot of grounds to cover for the majority of Nigerians to believe they are serious as an umpire,” he said.

“The impression currently is that INEC is impotent, and you cannot blame Nigerians for that. There is a Yoruba proverb that a woman whose child has been killed before by a witch sees every woman as a witch.

“So, INEC has always dashed the hopes of Nigerians. So, don’t be surprised if Nigerians see INEC as a witch that will continue to kill and suck the blood of its victims. Despite all the resources poured into INEC, it usually fails so glaringly and spectacularly.

“We saw in 1993 how the June 12 election ran very smoothly. But today we don’t have anything close to that. Nigeria should be improving, not deteriorating, not degenerating. And the umpire cannot be different from those who appointed them. “If those who appointed people believe in free and fair elections, they will do everything possible to manipulate, to manoeuvre, to meander and make sure that they have their way by hook or by crook.”

In his own opinion, The President of the Nigerian Society of International Affairs (NSIA), Prof. Hassan Saliu, told Thepledge that the Osun governorship election is shaping up to be one of the most politically sensitive contests in recent times, with several underlying factors likely to shape both the campaigns and the eventual outcome.

“There will certainly be pressure on INEC because of the political importance attached to the election. The Commission must rise above every form of influence, remain faithful to the law, and ensure that every contestant is treated fairly. Only a credible process can produce an outcome that enjoys public confidence,” he said.

Also speaking, a lecturer of Politics and Governance at Kwara State University, Malete, Dr. Seyid Hassan Cisse, told Thepledge that INEC’s constitutional independence places a greater responsibility on the Commission to safeguard the credibility of the election.

He said the political atmosphere in Osun remains tense because of the competing interests surrounding the poll, insisting that the electoral umpire must resist every form of pressure and allow the democratic process to take its course.


“The independence attached to INEC requires it to remain neutral. My appeal is that the Commission should allow the will of the people to prevail. Let democracy triumph, let every eligible voter exercise his or her franchise freely, and let every valid vote count,” he said.

“If the will of the people does not prevail, we will be writing a chapter of history whose consequences may be borne by future generations. Electoral integrity is not only about today but also about preserving confidence in our democracy,” he stated.

It is believed that the success of the election will depend not only on the commission’s technical competence but also on the collective commitment of political actors, security agencies, civil society organisations, the media and the electorate to uphold the principles of free, fair and peaceful elections.

For sure, all eyes will be on Osun as voters go out this Saturday to elect the governor who will preside over the affairs of the state in the next four years. Will it be Governor Adeleke of the Accord Party or Bola Oyebamiji of the APC? What is however not in doubt is that the Osun election is seen as a test case for next year’s general election. Nigerians are watching to see how INEC, the police, the political leaders, the electorate and other stakeholders play their roles in making sure the outcome justifies the efforts put into it.

More importantly, Osun voters want to see an outcome that is a reflection of what they wanted. They want to see a transparent and credible process translating to free and fair results.

A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress, Dele Momodu, says he is backing Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party in Osun State for a second term, despite being a member of a rival opposition party.

Momodu disclosed this in a statement on Tuesday, insisting that opposition parties must set aside individual interests and align behind Adeleke ahead of the August 15 governorship election in the state.

The former presidential aspirant said he remained a proud member of the ADC.

He explained that he joined the party on the basis that prominent opposition figures decided to form a broad coalition against what he described as the “APC cankerworm.”

“I joined ADC on the basis that prominent members of opposition parties in Nigeria decided to form a broad coalition of forces against the APC cankerworm that has almost destroyed our economy, social cohesion, religious tolerance and democratic institutions and separation of powers,” the statement read.

Momodu said he had prayed against a clash of egos among opposition figures.

He added that he had hoped the coalition would not need to start afresh, since the ADC had earlier paraded the second, third and fourth-placed candidates in the 2023 presidential election.

“I had prayed fervently against the demon, and clash, of voluptuous egos. I wished we won’t have to reinvent the wheels since the ADC initially paraded the second, third and fourth leading candidates in the 2023 presidential election,” he said.

He, however, said the coalition did not eventually materialise as envisaged.

He said he had nonetheless not given up hope that Nigerians would rise against the APC.

“Unfortunately, it did not turn out to be so. But I still did not give up on the hope that Nigerians, not just the parties, would rise up massively against the APC menace,” he said.

Momodu said the time had come for opposition parties to confront reality and act with practical commonsense, adding that his decision to back a candidate outside his own party was informed by the situation in Osun State.

“It would be foolhardy not to see that with the manner APC has turned Osun State into a theater of war, the only sensible strategy is for all opposition parties to align immediately and back the Accord Party candidate, Governor Ademola Adeleke.

“I make this declaration without equivocation, or any fear of contradiction,” the statement read.

He insisted that his endorsement of Adeleke was not informed by friendship or family ties.

He described the governor as a global phenomenon who could defeat President Bola Tinubu in a popularity contest.

“This is not based on friendship or family ties. Governor Adeleke has been a global phenomenon who would easily defeat President Tinubu himself in a popularity contest,” he said.

Momodu further described Adeleke as primus inter pares among Nigerian governors, citing his performance across several sectors.

“Adeleke is primus inter pares amongst Nigerian Governors, in order of extraordinary performance in infrastructure, health, education, staff welfare, labour unions, IGR, agriculture, commerce, culture, women empowerment, youth integration, etc,” the statement read.

Momodu warned that opposition parties should avoid handing the APC any excuse to manipulate the outcome of the election.

“We should never supply the APC an easy alibi to rig the Osun gubernatorial election on August 15, 2026,” he said.

A former chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Salihu Lukman, has said that no structure of democracy is functioning in the ruling party.


Speaking during an interview on Trust TV on Monday, Lukman said a monarchical system of government is better than the APC.

A monarchy is a system of government where one person, known as a monarch (such as a king or queen), serves as the head of state.

Lukman, who after dumping the APC, joined the African Democratic Congress, ADC, and thereafter suspended his membership of the party, said the ruling party is overconfident because the opposition failed to put their acts together.

“I was convinced that President Bola Tinubu and APC were committed democrats in 2023, but now some monarchies are better. There is no structure of democracy that is functioning in the APC.

“Ask yourself, when last you heard the party meeting? Maybe the NEC may have met about six months ago. Meanwhile, in the constitution of the party, the NEC is supposed to be meeting every three months.

“Other organs of the party are not even functioning. If the APC wants to wake up and become functional and start doing the right thing, fine. But for them to wake up, they need to be challenged.

“Now, they are so confident of victory in this election because the opposition has failed to get its act together to pose a challenge against them,” he said.